中印两国人口对经济发展影响的比较研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 01:58

本文选题：中国 + 印度　；参考：《吉林大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国和印度同为世界上的人口大国,又因经济发展迅速而备受瞩目。做为亚洲两个新兴的经济体,两国在未来世界经济发展中将扮演重要角色,但由于两国人口现状及发展趋势不同,对经济发展的影响也不一样,因此,比较中印两国人口对经济发展影响具有一定的现实意义。目前中国现有人口13.5亿,是劳动力资源第一大国。但由于中国生育水平的下降,居民的生活条件开始改善,卫生医疗水平逐渐提高,因此人均预期寿命逐年延长,我国人口年龄结构已经开始向老年型转变。根据联合国预测数据,中国劳动力人口高峰将在2020年出现,随后劳动力年龄人口开始持续下降。人口总数的高峰预计是2033年前后,随后人口总数开始减少。老龄化是目前我国人口的主要特点,老龄化使劳动力资源减少,因此在未来将会成为制约我国经济发展的一个重要因素。与中国相比,印度的人口在未来的发展潜力方面更具优势。印度自独立之后,人口始终保持增长的态势,并且印度的人口控制政策推行过程曲折,力度与效果都不及中国的计划生育政策,因此印度的生育水下降幅度不大。依据联合国的预测,印度总人口将在2050年超过16亿,在2030年之后超过中国成为人口第一大国。此外印度的年龄结构比中国年轻,劳动力供给从长发展趋势看较中国更充足,这也是国外专家看好未来印度经济发展前景的原因。两国未来仍然是世界上人口最多的两个国家。印度将在2030年前后在人口总数和劳动年龄人口数目上超过中国。中国已经步入老龄化社会,未来老龄化程度将会不断加深,因此印度人口的年龄结构比中国要年轻得多。两国同为劳动力资源最丰富的国家,劳动力素质也是各有特点。中国的劳动力素质整体要高于印度,但是印度的高等教育质量特别是信息科技方面的人才举世闻名。由于两国同属发展中国家,劳动力资源优势明显,在世界经济发展格局中,在低劳动力成本的初级产品加工业方面具有竞争优势。因此在未来两国的发展与竞争中,我国要尽量避免不利于经济发展的因素,采取有利于长期发展的对策。首先就是要加强教育事业的建设,提高劳动者的素质；其次就是要完善社会保障制度,转移农村剩余劳动力；最后就是要适时放宽生育政策应对未来劳动力缩减的危机。
[Abstract]:China and India are both the most populous countries in the world, and have attracted much attention for their rapid economic development. As two emerging economies in Asia, the two countries will play an important role in the development of the world economy in the future. However, due to the difference in population status and development trends between the two countries, the impact on economic development is also different. It is of practical significance to compare the impact of Chinese and Indian population on economic development. At present, China has a population of 1.35 billion, and is the largest country in labor resources. However, due to the decline of the fertility level in China, the living conditions of the residents began to improve, and the level of health care gradually improved, so the life expectancy per capita increased year by year, and the age structure of the population in China began to change to the old type. China's labor force will peak in 2020, according to United Nations projections, followed by a steady decline in the working-age population. The population is expected to peak around 2033 and then begin to decline. Aging is the main characteristic of our country's population at present. The aging makes the labor force resources decrease, so it will become an important factor restricting the economic development of our country in the future. India's population has an advantage over China in terms of its future development potential. Since the independence of India, the population has always maintained a growing trend, and India's population control policy implementation process twists and turns, the strength and effectiveness of China's one-child policy, so India's reproductive water decline is not much. India's population will exceed 1.6 billion by 2050 and overtake China as the largest by 2030, according to United Nations projections. In addition, the age structure of India is younger than that of China, and the labor supply is more abundant than that of China in the long run, which is why foreign experts are optimistic about the prospects of India's economic development in the future. The two countries will remain the two most populous countries in the world. India will surpass China in terms of population and working-age population around 2030. China is already in an aging society, and the future is going to get deeper, so the age structure of India's population is much younger than that of China. Both countries are rich in labor resources, and the quality of labor force has its own characteristics. China's overall workforce is better than India's, but India's higher education quality, especially in information technology, is world famous. Because the two countries belong to the developing countries, the advantages of labor resources are obvious, in the pattern of world economic development, they have the competitive advantage in the low labor cost primary product processing industry. Therefore, in the future development and competition between the two countries, our country should try to avoid the factors that are not conducive to economic development, and take countermeasures conducive to long-term development. First, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of education, to improve the quality of workers; secondly, to improve the social security system, transfer rural surplus labor force; finally, to relax the birth policy to cope with the crisis of labor reduction in the future.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.24;C924.351

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