北京市人口迁移动力机制研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 17:13

本文选题：人口迁移 + 人口经济压力　；参考：《中央民族大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口迁移的内在原因和动力机制一直以来都是人口学、经济学等社会科学领域研究的重点,自20世纪90年代以来,在经济和社会转型的时代背景下,我国市场化取向的改革使要素流动日趋频繁,同时也推动了中国大规模的人口迁移和流动。21世纪以来,人口迁移的显著性和活跃性日益明显,并已成为重要的社会经济现象和中国城市化进程的重要组成部分。快速城市化进程及人口大规模在农村与城市、城市与城市之间的迁移和流动,对经济发展和社会资源整合等多方面正在并将继续产生深远影响。因此,探究我国人口迁移的成因,找到其内在动力机制,并在此基础上制定相关政策,对人口流动进行合理引导,实现劳动力资源优化配置就显得尤为重要。本文以人口经济压力理论为基础,以北京市2000-2010年人口迁移规模为研究目标,在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上,提出适合目标区域的人口经济压力评价指标体系,并通过对人口经济压力各项指数的计算,运用回归分析方法,找到北京市人口迁移内在动力机制。首先,在人口经济压力评价指标体系方面,本文在综述目前国内外人口迁移动因理论研究基础之上,结合已有人口经济压力评价体系研究成果,把全部的指标体系分为人口数量压力指标体系、生活成本压力指标体系、就业收入压力指标体系、资源环境压力指标体系、公共服务压力指标体系等五大评价内容,以此建立最终的北京市人口经济压力评价指标体系。其次,根据搜集到的指标数据,对数据进行标准化处理后,在SPSS统计软件中运行主成分分析程序模块,分别直接得到五大指标体系的压力评估值,再运用等权加总的计算方法得到所需要的北京人口经济压力综合指数。最后,运用SPSS回归分析模块,将各项压力指数与北京市人口迁移规模进行多元线性回归分析,并拟合出人口迁移规模回归方程,完成对各项人口经济压力指数与人口迁移规模的定量分析,得出了生活成本压力、就业收入压力、资源环境压力、公共服务压力是人口迁移动力的结论。其中,就业收入是人口迁移最重要动力,对人口迁移规模影响最大。根据所得的研究结论,本文对北京市人口规模的调控和城市的人口的管理提出了一定程度上的参考意见,以期在实际中为决策者提供合理的政策支持。
[Abstract]:The internal causes and motive mechanism of population migration have always been the focus of research in the fields of demography, economics and other social sciences. Since the 1990s, under the background of economic and social transformation, The reform of market-oriented orientation of our country makes the flow of elements become more and more frequent, at the same time, it also promotes the large-scale population migration and mobility in China. Since the 21st century, the significance and activity of population migration has become more and more obvious. And has become an important social and economic phenomenon and China's urbanization process an important component. The rapid urbanization process and the large-scale migration and movement of population in rural and urban areas, between cities and cities, are having and will continue to have a far-reaching impact on economic development and social resource integration. Therefore, it is very important to explore the causes of population migration in China, find out its internal motive mechanism, and make relevant policies to guide the population flow reasonably and realize the optimal allocation of labor resources. Based on the theory of population economic pressure and taking the population migration scale of Beijing from 2000 to 2010 as the research goal, this paper puts forward a population economic pressure evaluation index system suitable for the target region on the basis of the existing research results. Through the calculation of various indices of population economic pressure and the method of regression analysis, the internal motive mechanism of population migration in Beijing is found. First of all, in the population economic pressure evaluation index system, this paper summarizes the current domestic and foreign population migration motivation theory research, combined with the existing population economic pressure evaluation system research results. The whole index system is divided into five evaluation contents: population quantity pressure index system, cost of living pressure index system, employment income pressure index system, resources and environment pressure index system, public service pressure index system, etc. In this way, the final evaluation index system of population economic pressure in Beijing is established. Secondly, according to the collected index data, after the data is standardized, the principal component analysis program module is run in the SPSS statistical software, and the pressure evaluation values of the five index systems are obtained directly. The economic pressure index of Beijing population is obtained by using the equal weight plus total calculation method. Finally, by using the SPSS regression analysis module, the multivariate linear regression analysis between the pressure index and the population migration scale in Beijing is carried out, and the regression equation of the population migration scale is fitted. The quantitative analysis of population economic pressure index and population migration scale is completed, and the conclusion is drawn that cost of living pressure, employment income pressure, resource and environment pressure, public service pressure are the driving force of population migration. Among them, employment income is the most important driving force of population migration, which has the greatest impact on the scale of population migration. Based on the conclusions of the study, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the control of population scale and the management of urban population in Beijing, in order to provide reasonable policy support for decision makers in practice.
【学位授予单位】：中央民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.2;F224

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