山东省人口红利的时空变化及对经济发展的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-29 09:27

本文选题：人口红利 + 经济发展　；参考：《山东师范大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】： 本文从时间上对山东省人口红利的形成和变化做了分析,从空间上对山东省人口红利的区域差异做了分析,并分析了人口红利对山东省经济发展的影响。论文主要包括以下五个部分的内容：第一部分分析了人口红利提出的背景；人口红利的相关理论以及国内外关于人口红利的研究现状,包括人口转变理论、人口红利基本理论以及人口红利与经济发展的相关性等；最后论述了本文研究的目的和意义。第二部分主要从时间上分析山东省人口红利的形成和变化过程。首先,分析了山东人口转变过程,通过与中国整体的的人口转变过程相对比,总结了其特点,并对山东省人口转变过程进行了阶段划分。其次,分析了山东省人口年龄结构的变化过程,到21世纪初,山东省年龄结构逐渐演变为老年型,并在不断深化。最后,对山东省的人口红利期进行了界定,通过引入相关标准,判定山东省人口红利开始于1984年,并持续到2030年,大约延续46年。通过对比分析,总结了山东省的人口红利的特点,并对其形成原因做了简要分析。第三部分主要从空间上分析山东省人口红利的区域差异。通过对2007年山东省17地市人口红利状况、人口红利利用率状况及区域发展状况的分析,对山东省17地市做了综合聚类分析,总结了山东省人口红利区域差异的特点,山东省的人口红利发展呈现由东向西、由北向南逐渐递减趋势,与山东省区域经发展的态势大体重合。最后山东省人口红利区域差异的形成原因做了简要分析。第四部分主要分析人口红利对山东省经济发展的影响。从理论和实证的角度分别分析了人口红利对山东省劳动力供给、居民储蓄、居民消费以及产业结构的影响,最后从总体上分析了人口红利对山东省经济发展的影响,计算得到人口红利对山东省经济发展的贡献率,得出结论：人口红利对山东省经济发展具有明显的促进作用。第五部分提出了充分利用人口红利,促进山东省经济发展的对策与建议。首先,提高就业率,实现就业最大化,充分利用人口红利期的人力资源。其次,提高劳动力的素质,加大人力资本积累,更有效的发挥人口红利期劳动力资源丰富的优势。再次,加强劳动力资源有效配置研究,促进人口的合理流动,促进各区域协调发展。最后,完善各种制度措施,充分挖掘“第二次人口红利”,促进人口红利后期山东省经济的发展。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the formation and change of demographic dividend in Shandong Province in time, analyzes the regional difference of demographic dividend in Shandong Province in space, and analyzes the impact of demographic dividend on the economic development of Shandong Province. The thesis mainly includes the following five parts: The first part analyzes the background of population dividend, the related theory of population dividend and the current research situation of population dividend at home and abroad, including the theory of population transition, the basic theory of population dividend and the correlation between population dividend and economic development. Finally, the purpose and significance of this paper are discussed. The second part mainly analyzes the formation and change process of population dividend in Shandong Province in time. Firstly, the paper analyzes the process of population transition in Shandong Province, compares it with the whole process of population transformation in China, summarizes its characteristics, and divides the process of population transition in Shandong Province into stages. Secondly, the changing process of the population age structure in Shandong Province is analyzed. By the beginning of the 21st century, the age structure of Shandong Province has gradually evolved into the old type, and is deepening continuously. Finally, the population dividend period of Shandong Province is defined. By introducing relevant criteria, it is determined that the population dividend of Shandong Province began in 1984 and lasted until 2030, and lasted for about 46 years. Through comparative analysis, this paper summarizes the characteristics of population dividend in Shandong Province, and makes a brief analysis on the reasons for its formation. The third part mainly analyzes the regional difference of population dividend in Shandong Province from the spatial point of view. Based on the analysis of the status of population dividend, utilization rate of population dividend and regional development in 17 cities of Shandong Province in 2007, this paper makes a comprehensive cluster analysis on 17 cities of Shandong Province, and summarizes the characteristics of regional difference of population dividend in Shandong Province. The development of demographic dividend in Shandong Province shows a decreasing trend from east to west, from north to south, which coincides with the trend of regional economic development in Shandong Province. Finally, the causes of regional difference of demographic dividend in Shandong Province are briefly analyzed. The fourth part mainly analyzes the impact of demographic dividend on the economic development of Shandong Province. This paper analyzes the effects of demographic dividend on the supply of labor force, residents' savings, residents' consumption and industrial structure in Shandong Province, and finally analyzes the impact of demographic dividend on the economic development of Shandong Province as a whole. The contribution rate of the population dividend to the economic development of Shandong Province is obtained, and the conclusion is drawn that the demographic dividend has an obvious promoting effect on the economic development of Shandong Province. The fifth part puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to make full use of the population dividend and promote the economic development of Shandong Province. First, increase employment rate, realize employment maximization, make full use of the human resources of population dividend period. Secondly, improve the quality of labor force, increase the accumulation of human capital, more effectively play the advantage of abundant labor resources in the period of demographic dividend. Thirdly, strengthen the research on the effective allocation of labor resources, promote the rational flow of population and promote the coordinated development of all regions. Finally, improve various system measures, fully excavate "the second population dividend", promote the economic development of Shandong Province in the latter stage of population dividend.
【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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