人口红利概念及对中国人口红利的再认识——聚焦于人口机会的分析

发布时间：2018-06-02 06:33

本文选题：人口机会窗口 + 人口红利　；参考：《中国人口科学》2017年06期

【摘要】：人口红利是建立在人口机会窗口上的经济学概念。收获人口红利的前提条件是有利于经济增长的人口机会,充分必要条件是与人口机会相适应的经济社会发展政策。人口红利有数量型和质量型之分,前者以人力资源优势为基础,后者以人力资本为基础,二者的周期必有重叠,收获质量型人口红利的潜力更大且更具可持续性。依据人口发展规律,21世纪上半叶,中国人口快速老龄化与劳动年龄人口数量高台期相伴,劳动力资源存量虽减但规模庞大,人口抚养比相对较低,人口综合素质有了质的飞跃,低龄老年人力资源规模巨大且质量改善,收获数量型人口红利的人口机会窗口越关越小,收获质量型人口红利的人口机会窗口越开越大,两个人口机会重叠并正加速从数量型红利向质量型红利转变。与此同时,深化供给侧结构性改革、加快建设创新型国家、优先发展教育事业、提高就业质量和人民收入水平、实施健康中国等新时代新发展战略布局,初步奠定了继续收获新人口红利和再创经济辉煌的政策基础。
[Abstract]:Demographic dividend is an economic concept based on the window of population opportunity. The precondition of harvesting the population dividend is the population opportunity which is favorable to the economic growth, and the sufficient and necessary condition is the economic and social development policy adapted to the population opportunity. The former is based on the advantage of human resources, the latter is based on human capital, and the cycles of the two types must overlap, and the potential of harvesting qualitative demographic dividend is greater and more sustainable. According to the law of population development, in the first half of the 21st century, the rapid aging of population in China is accompanied by a period of high number of working-age population. Although the stock of labor resources is decreasing, but the scale is huge, the dependency ratio of the population is relatively low, and the comprehensive quality of the population has made a qualitative leap forward. The scale and quality of the human resources of the young aged is huge and the population opportunity window of harvesting the quantitative population dividend is smaller and smaller, and the population opportunity window of the quality demographic dividend is bigger and bigger. The two demographic opportunities overlap and are accelerating the shift from a quantitative dividend to a qualitative dividend. At the same time, we should deepen the structural reform on the supply side, speed up the construction of an innovative country, give priority to the development of education, improve the quality of employment and the level of people's income, and implement the new era and new development strategy layout, such as a healthy China. Initially laid a policy foundation for continuing to reap new demographic dividends and recreate economic splendor.
【作者单位】：南开大学人口与发展研究所;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“老龄化对中国经济发展的影响及应对策略研究”(编号:13JZD005)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：C92-05

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