东北地区实施“全面二孩”政策后的人口变动分析

发布时间：2018-06-04 14:15

本文选题：人口政策 + 东北地区　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文依托2010年人口普查数据,辅以2016年中国统计年鉴,运用改进后的Leslie人口预测模型,对受“全面二孩”政策影响的东北地区人口进行为期25年(2015-2040年)的人口预测,并从人口年龄结构、人口老龄化程度、人口抚养比、劳动力人口数、人口规模等五个方面进行人口分析。探究这批新增人口出生、成长为适龄劳动人群后对东北地区的影响。根据本文预测结果,在“全面二孩”政策实施后将会给东北地区带来一个短暂的人口高峰,该人口高峰将出现在2025-2030年间,人口规模将可能达到1.17亿-1.31亿,随后东北地区的人口将持续下跌,人口抚养比升高,且老龄化进程不会随着政策的推进而有所停缓。当生育率提高至更替水平时,2030年将出现劳动人口规模的小幅度回升,但劳动力人口补充状态维持时间极短,之后将永久性下跌。本文依据据测结果,结合现阶段东北地区经济现状,认为“全面二孩”的实施对东北地区短期经济社会影响主要体现在妇幼保健体系人力、财力、技术压力的影响与劳动力生存压力所导致的社会经济问题。长期影响主要体现在政策开放15年后东北地区社会将面临人口消费能力减弱以及产业结构调整支撑力量不足的问题。这要求东北地区必须更多的依靠内需拉动外需以创造社会经济价值。最后探讨了人口生育率变化带来的妇幼保健中的机遇与危机;人口结构变化引起的就业压力中的机会与危机;人口抚养比升高带来的机会与危机;人口老龄化中的机会与危机,并提出相应解决方案。
[Abstract]:Based on the 2010 census data and the 2016 China Statistical Yearbook, this paper uses the improved Leslie population forecasting model to forecast the population of the Northeast region affected by the "comprehensive two-child" policy for 25 years (2015-2040). Population analysis is carried out from five aspects: population age structure, population aging degree, population dependency ratio, labor force population size and population size. To explore the impact of the new population on the Northeast after it has grown into a working-age population. According to the predicted results of this paper, after the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy, it will bring a temporary population peak to the Northeast, which will occur between 2025 and 2030, and the population size will probably reach 117 million to 131 million. Then the population in the Northeast will continue to fall, the dependency ratio will rise, and the aging process will not slow down as the policy moves forward. When the fertility rate rises to replacement level, there will be a small recovery in the size of the working population in 2030, but the replacement of the labour force will remain very short and then fall permanently. Based on the results of the survey, combined with the present economic situation in Northeast China, this paper holds that the short-term economic and social impact of the implementation of "all-around two-child" on the Northeast region is mainly reflected in the manpower and financial resources of the maternal and child health care system. The influence of technological pressure and the social and economic problems caused by the survival pressure of labor force. The long-term influence is mainly reflected in the fact that the society in Northeast China will face the problems of weakening population consumption ability and insufficient supporting force of industrial structure adjustment after 15 years of policy opening. This requires that the Northeast region must rely more on domestic demand to stimulate external demand to create social and economic value. Finally, opportunities and crises in maternal and child health caused by changes in population fertility; opportunities and crises in employment pressures caused by demographic changes; opportunities and crises brought about by rising dependency ratios; opportunities and crises in population ageing are discussed. And put forward the corresponding solution.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.21

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