人口年龄结构变动与中国居民消费：理论与实证

发布时间：2018-06-05 02:17

本文选题：人口年龄结构 + 少儿抚养比　；参考：《浙江大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：中国已经进入经济转型的中期,随着市场化、城市化和科学技术的不断发展,我国经济获得了飞速发展,然而在经济高速增长的同时,我国居民消费率却呈现出长期的下降趋势。居民消费率过低导致国内有效消费需求不足,则可能影响我国经济平稳持续发展。本文以人口年龄结构为视角,对人口年龄结构变动与居民消费的关系进行了理论和实证上的研究,借鉴消费经济学理论中的人口年龄结构指标,构建引入人口年龄结构变量的居民消费函数模型,利用我国人口年龄结构等解释变量的宏观面板数据和时间序列数据对模型进行实证检验。传统上,人们习惯于用收入的变化来解释居民消费行为,比如凯恩斯的绝对收入模型和佛里德曼的持久收入模型,然而这些模型都忽略了人口年龄特征这一重要的人口结构因素对消费的影响。那么人口年龄结构与居民消费之间的关系究竟是怎样的?上世纪80年代以后我国的高增长率是不是直接或间接由人口年龄结构的变化导致的?人口年龄结构变动在居民消费中究竟扮演着怎样的角色?对这些问题的研究将对我国实现从投资驱动型和出口驱动型向消费驱动型经济增长方式转变,保持我国经济持续健康稳定发展具有积极的现实意义,对于我国经济政策和人口政策的制定具有重要的理论价值。从人口年龄结构视角分析我国居民消费率问题有助于我们从宏观角度分析人口老龄化对中国未来经济运行的影响。人口老龄化通过对微观家庭消费影响的综合效应,在宏观层面上对整个社会的消费与储蓄产生影响,进而对整个国家国民经济的运行产生影响。随着我国老龄化不断加剧以及老年人口数量的急剧增多,必然会影响我国总储蓄量与总消费量的变动,进而影响我国宏观经济发展态势。因此,本文的研究可以作为制定未来人口政策和经济政策的参考,也可以更好地分析经济增长、人口变动与消费和储蓄之间的关系,把握它们内在的发展规律,对于保持我国经济可持续发展具有极强的现实意义。本文首先对国内外消费函数研究成果以及有关人口年龄结构与消费关系的理论文献与经验文献进行梳理、综述,比较分析了各种消费行为假说的异同和消费函数之间的差异,从中得到后续研究展开的理论和技术支持；其次概括了建国以来我国人口年龄结构转型的历史演变过程、原因、特点,以及所面临的人口老龄化的挑战。并从纵向历史对比与横向国际比较两个维度分析我国居民低消费率的现状,主要运用相关图表、数据对我国居民消费率的现状进行了翔实的描述、说明,得出我国居民消费率偏低的结论；随后从居民收入占比与居民消费倾向两个角度分析了影响我国居民消费率的因素,得出人口年龄结构变动是影响居民消费的因素之一。接着着重分析了人口年龄结构变动影响居民消费的作用机理以及具体途径,并对国内外关于人口年龄结构与居民消费行为的经验研究进行了论述；然后对人口年龄结构变动和居民消费的关系进行了实证研究：包括本文中消费者行为假定,纳入人口年龄结构变量的中国居民消费函数模型的构建,运用中国2000-2009年省级面板数据,分别对全国层面、分区域层面中国居民消费函数模型进行验证。实证结果发现,人口结构因素对居民消费率有着显著的影响,其中,少儿抚养比、老年抚养比与居民消费率之间分别存在正相关关系和负相关关系。然而,在单独对东、中、西部地区的研究中却发现,抚养比与居民消费率的关系并不与全国保持一致,这些差别反映了区域间经济社会发展差距以及不同地区老龄化程度的差异。考虑到人口年龄结构变量要在较长时间内才具有足够的离散度,本文还运用协整理论,对中国1978-2009年宏观时间序列数据进行了实证检验。实证结果表明,人口年龄结构变量与居民消费率之间存在协整关系,揭示了人口年龄结构变量与居民消费率之间的长期均衡关系。格兰杰因果关系检验表明,人口抚养比与居民消费率之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系,在此基础上,进一步考察了少儿抚养比和老年抚养比冲击各自对我国居民消费率的影响,发现老年抚养比的冲击对我国居民消费率的影响更大；最后根据实证研究结果,全面总结了人口年龄结构变动对于中国居民消费的影响,并提出相应的政策建议,同时对论文存在的不足和进一步的研究方向进行说明和展望。
[Abstract]:China has entered the middle period of economic transformation. With the continuous development of market, urbanization and science and technology, China's economy has achieved rapid development. However, while the economy is increasing rapidly, the consumption rate of our residents has been declining in the long run. The low consumption rate of residents may affect the shortage of domestic effective consumption, which may affect me. From the perspective of population age structure, this paper makes a theoretical and Empirical Study on the relationship between population age structure changes and residents' consumption, and draws on the population age structure index in the theory of consumer economics and constructs a resident consumption function model which introduces population age structure variables to make use of the population age of our country. Macroscopical panel data and time series data of explanatory variables are used to test the model.
Traditionally, people are accustomed to using income changes to explain consumer behavior, such as Keynes's absolute income model and the Buddha Redman's persistent income model. However, these models all ignore the influence of population age characteristics on consumption by the important demographic factors. What is it? Is our country's high growth rate directly or indirectly caused by the changes in the population age structure after the 80s of last century? What role does the population age structure change in the consumption of the population? The change of the economic growth mode, maintaining the sustained and stable development of our country's economy has positive practical significance, and has important theoretical value for the formulation of China's economic policy and population policy.
From the perspective of population age structure, the analysis of the consumption rate of residents in China will help us to analyze the impact of population aging on the future economic operation of China from a macro perspective. By the comprehensive effect on the micro family consumption, the aging of population affects the consumption and savings of the whole society at the macro level, and then to the whole country. The movement of the national economy has an impact. With the increasing aging of our country and the rapid increase in the number of the elderly population, it will inevitably affect the changes in the total savings and total consumption in China, and then affect the situation of our macroeconomic development. Therefore, this study can be used as a reference for the formulation of future population policies and economic policies, as well as in the future. To better analyze the economic growth, the relationship between the population change and the consumption and the savings, and to grasp the inherent law of development are of great practical significance for maintaining the sustainable development of our country's economy.
This paper first reviews the research results of consumption function at home and abroad as well as the theoretical literature and empirical literature on the age structure and consumption relationship of population, summarizes the similarities and differences of various consumption behavior hypotheses and the differences between consumption functions, and gets the theoretical and technical support from the following research. Secondly, it summarizes the construction of the theory and technology. The historical evolution process of the population age structure transformation in China, the reasons, the characteristics, and the challenges facing the aging of the population, and analyzing the current situation of the low consumption rate of our residents from the two dimensions of vertical historical comparison and horizontal international comparison, mainly using the related charts, and the full and accurate data on the current situation of the consumption rate of our residents. The conclusion is that the consumption rate of our residents is low, and then the factors that affect the consumption rate of residents in China are analyzed from the two angles of the residents' income and the tendency of residents' consumption, and it is concluded that the changes in the population age structure are one of the factors that affect the consumption of the residents. The mechanism of action and specific ways are discussed, and the empirical research on population age structure and consumption behavior is discussed at home and abroad. Then, the empirical study on the relationship between population age structure changes and residents' consumption is carried out, including the consumer behavior hypothesis in this paper and the Chinese resident consumption function of the population age structure variables. The model is constructed, using the provincial panel data of 2000-2009 years in China to verify the Chinese consumption function model at the national level and the regional level respectively. The empirical results show that the demographic factors have a significant impact on the consumption rate of the residents, among them, there is a positive correlation between the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio and the consumption rate of residents respectively. However, in a separate study of East, middle and western regions, it is found that the relationship between the dependency ratio and the consumption rate is not consistent with the country. These differences reflect the gap between the economic and social development and the difference in the degree of aging in different regions. In this paper, we also use cointegration theory to make an empirical test on China's 1978-2009 year macro time series data. The empirical results show that there is a cointegration relationship between the population age structure variable and the consumption rate, which reveals the long-term equilibrium relationship between the population age structure variables and the consumption rate of residents. The Jay causality test shows that there is a one-way Grainger causality between the population dependency ratio and the resident consumption rate. On this basis, the influence of the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio on the consumption rate of our residents is further investigated, and the impact of the impact of the elderly dependency ratio on the consumption rate of our residents is greater; finally, the effect of the impact on the consumption rate of China's residents is found. The results of the empirical study comprehensively summarize the impact of population age structure changes on the consumption of Chinese residents, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations, at the same time, the shortcomings of the paper and further research direction are explained and prospected.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.2;F126.1;F224

【引证文献】