吉林省人口与经济协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 13:52

本文选题：人口 + 经济　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口和经济是人们非常关注的两大主题,研究两者之间相互关系的内容涉及多个指标,非常复杂,也十分丰富。因此,只有从实际出发,全面深入的理解人口与经济之间的关系,才有助于解决人口和经济的发展问题,从而促进人口与经济之间的协调发展。当前,吉林省面临着人口老龄化的速度比经济发展的速度快、人均资源占有率下降等问题,其根本原因是人口的发展和经济的发展不是相对协调的。要想促进吉林省的经济发展,人民生活水平提高,就应该从可持续发展的角度考虑,实现人口与经济的协调发展。基于经济适度人口、可持续发展、系统学、协同学的相关理论,利用1992年—2016年的相关数据,从人口数量、人口结构、人口质量三个角度分析了吉林省人口子系统的发展现状与变动特征为:总人口数减少、人口老龄化问题突出、文盲率降低等;从经济总量、经济结构、经济水平三个角度分析吉林省经济子系统的发展现状与变动特征为:GDP总量和人均GDP快速增长、第三产业占GDP的比重低于第二产业占GDP的比重、财政收入和支出大幅增加等。在吉林省人口和经济现状与变动特征分析的基础上,引入欧氏距离的概念,建立欧氏距离协调度模型,采用主成分分析的方法和SPSS统计软件对人口子系统和经济子系统分别进行指标权重的计算,得到1991年到2015年吉林省人口发展度、经济发展度、人口与经济综合发展度、协调度以及协调发展度的数值。进而对1991年到2015年吉林省协调发展度进行聚类分析,研究结果发现吉林省经历了中度失调发展、轻度失调发展、濒临失调发展、初级协调发展和中级协调发展五个阶段,并且吉林省人口与经济协调发展度的数值呈上升的趋势,说明吉林省人口与经济的协调性逐渐变好。最后,针对吉林省人口和经济的现状以及人口与经济协调发展的程度,提出了以下几点建议:解决好人口数量与经济的发展关系;调整人口空间分布,促进人口分布合理化;缓解人口老龄化压力,健全社会保障制度;提高人口素质,加大教育投资;调节吉林省产业结构,鼓励发展中小企业;注重系统整体效应,促进人口与经济协调发展。
[Abstract]:Population and economy are two major topics that people pay close attention to. The research on the relationship between them involves many indexes, is very complex, and is also very rich. Therefore, only by proceeding from reality and understanding the relationship between population and economy in an all-round way can we help to solve the problem of population and economic development and thus promote the harmonious development between population and economy. At present, Jilin Province is faced with problems such as the aging of population is faster than that of economic development, and the per capita share of resources is declining. The fundamental reason is that the development of population and the development of economy are not in relative harmony. In order to promote the economic development of Jilin province and raise the living standard of the people, we should consider the sustainable development and realize the coordinated development of population and economy. Based on the relevant theories of economic moderate population, sustainable development, systematics, and Synergetics, using relevant data from 1992 to 2016, from population size to population structure, This paper analyzes the present situation and changing characteristics of the population subsystem in Jilin Province from three angles of population quality: the decrease of the total population, the prominent problem of aging population, the decrease of illiteracy rate, etc. This paper analyzes the present situation and changing characteristics of economic subsystem in Jilin Province from three angles of economic level: the total amount of GDP and the per capita GDP increase rapidly, the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP is lower than that of the secondary industry in GDP, and the financial revenue and expenditure increase significantly. Based on the analysis of population and economic status and change characteristics of Jilin Province, the concept of Euclidean distance is introduced, and the Euclidean distance coordination degree model is established. The index weights of population subsystem and economic subsystem were calculated by principal component analysis (PCA) and SPSS software, respectively, and the population development degree, economic development degree, population and economic comprehensive development degree of Jilin Province from 1991 to 2015 were obtained. The degree of coordination and the value of the degree of coordinated development. From 1991 to 2015, a cluster analysis of the degree of coordinated development in Jilin Province was carried out. The results showed that Jilin Province experienced five stages: moderate maladjustment, slight maladjustment, bordering on maladjustment, primary coordinated development and intermediate coordinated development. Moreover, the population and economy of Jilin Province is on the rise, which indicates that the coordination between population and economy in Jilin Province is getting better. Finally, in view of the present situation of population and economy in Jilin Province and the degree of coordinated development of population and economy, the following suggestions are put forward: to solve the relationship between population quantity and economy, to adjust the spatial distribution of population, and to promote the rationalization of population distribution; To alleviate the pressure of aging population, improve the social security system, improve the quality of the population, increase investment in education, adjust the industrial structure of Jilin Province, encourage the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, pay attention to the overall effect of the system, and promote the coordinated development of population and economy.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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