论家庭养老的经济效率——一个生育内生的代际交叠模型分析

发布时间：2018-06-16 14:57

本文选题：家庭养老 + 生育率　；参考：《东南学术》2014年03期

【摘要】：家庭养老是人类社会一种古老的非正式制度安排,目前在我国社会养老服务体系中也仍然处于基础地位。然而,家庭养老是否具有经济效率是一个值得探讨的问题。本文基于孩子是"投资品"的假设,将养育孩子的动机抽象为老年安全动机,在一个两期代际交叠模型中将生育率内生化,使得家庭通过养育孩子的成本和赡养强度的约束最优化问题来确定养育孩子的最优数量,从而基于模型的均衡解考察家庭赡养强度对经济的影响。结果发现,存在赡养的经济中,生育率会提高,而过高的赡养强度会导致生育率下降;家庭养老会造成资本积累的挤出效应,使得人均有效产出和消费都出现降低,在一个具备有效的投资市场的经济中,家庭养老是缺乏经济效率的。基于此,我国应加速完善透明化的资本市场,鼓励自愿性养老年金的建立,同时增强家庭尤其是农村家庭的社会养老意识,降低养儿防老动机。
[Abstract]:Family pension is an old informal institutional arrangement in human society, and it is still in a basic position in the social pension service system of our country. However, whether the family endowment has the economic efficiency is a question worth discussing. Based on the assumption that the child is an "investment object", this paper abstracts the motivation of raising a child as an old age security motive, and in a two-phase intergenerational overlap model, the fertility rate is endo-biochemically. The optimal number of children is determined by the constrained optimization problem of the cost and intensity of raising children, and the influence of family support intensity on the economy is investigated based on the equilibrium solution of the model. The results show that in an economy with maintenance, the fertility rate will increase, and too much support intensity will lead to a decline in fertility; the family pension will cause the crowding out effect of capital accumulation, resulting in a decrease in per capita effective output and consumption. In an economy with an effective investment market, family pension is inefficient. Based on this, China should speed up the improvement of transparent capital market, encourage the establishment of voluntary pension, at the same time strengthen the social endowment awareness of families, especially in rural areas, and reduce the motivation of raising and preventing old age.
【作者单位】：上海社会科学院;杭州师范大学人口所;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学青年项目“人口持续低增长影响下我国人口政策目标及策略研究”(项目编号:11YJC840040)
【分类号】：C924.24;D669.6

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