广州市人口结构与商品住宅价格关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 01:32

本文选题：人口结构 + 商品住宅价格　；参考：《暨南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：住宅作为一种特殊商品，具有消费品和投资品的双重特性。近年来，房地产市场投资过热，城市住宅价格持续上涨，加重人们的住房负担。尽管影响房价波动的因素很多，但“人”作为住宅的使用者和需求者，对住宅价格的影响不容忽视。本文以广州市的人口结构与商品住宅价格作为研究对象，从人口自然结构（人口年龄结构、性别比）、人口社会经济结构（家庭规模、人均可支配收入、从业人员产业结构、人口教育结构）、人口地域结构（非农人口比重、人口净迁移率）三个方面研究它们与商品住宅价格间的关系。文章首先基于理论定性分析两者的关系，然后搜集1990-2009年广州市商品住宅价格和人口结构的相关数据，运用SVAR模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法实证分析。发现商品住宅价格的变化与从业人员产业结构、人口年龄结构、人口教育结构、非农人口比重有关，而与性别比、家庭规模、人均可支配收入、人口净迁移率无关；在人口自然结构层面，人口年龄结构是影响广州商品住宅价格的主要因素；在人口社会经济结构层面，人口教育结构是影响广州商品住宅价格的主要因素；在人口地域结构层面，非农人口比重是影响广州市商品住宅价格的主要因素；短期来看，从业人员产业结构、非农人口比重对广州商品住宅价格影响较大，，而人口年龄结构和人口教育结构对其有长期推动作用，其中人口年龄结构影响最大。文章最后从收入分配、城市化控制、人口增量控制、住房保障体系完善等方面提出建议。
[Abstract]:As a special commodity, housing has the dual characteristics of consumer goods and investment goods. In recent years, the real estate market investment overheated, urban housing prices continue to rise, increasing people's housing burden. Although there are many factors that affect the fluctuation of house price, as the users and demanders of housing, the influence of "person" on housing price can not be ignored. This article takes the population structure and the commodity housing price of Guangzhou as the research object, from the population natural structure (population age structure, sex ratio, population social economic structure (family size, per capita disposable income, industrial structure of practitioners), The relationship between population education structure, population geographical structure (non-agricultural population proportion, net migration rate) and commodity housing price is studied. Based on the theoretical qualitative analysis of the relationship between the two, and then collect the relevant data of commodity housing prices and population structure in Guangzhou from 1990 to 2009, using SVAR model, impulse response function, variance decomposition and other methods empirical analysis. It is found that the change of commodity housing price is related to the industrial structure of employees, the age structure of population, the structure of population education and the proportion of non-agricultural population, but not to sex ratio, family size, per capita disposable income and net migration rate. In the aspect of natural structure of population, the age structure of population is the main factor that affects the price of commercial housing in Guangzhou, and the structure of population education is the main factor of influencing the price of commodity house in Guangzhou at the level of social and economic structure of population. At the level of population regional structure, the proportion of non-agricultural population is the main factor that affects the commodity housing price in Guangzhou. In the short term, the industrial structure of employees and the proportion of non-agricultural population have a great impact on the commodity housing price in Guangzhou. Population age structure and population education structure have a long-term promoting effect, among which the population age structure has the biggest influence. Finally, suggestions are put forward from the aspects of income distribution, urbanization control, population increment control, housing security system improvement and so on.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.2;F293.3;F224

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