人口年龄构成变动与居民消费关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 05:09

本文选题：人口年龄构成 + 居民消费　；参考：《西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2016年01期

【摘要】：近年来,中国长期滞留在人口老龄化程度日趋严峻、抚养总负担不断加重与居民消费率持续下降并存的矛盾体中,那么如何针对人口现状特征,打开提高居民消费率的缺口呢?本文构建了人口年龄结构变动影响居民消费的理论模型,并利用中国东西部地区的省际面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明,东部地区少儿抚养比减小,老年抚养比增加都会增加居民消费,而西部地区少儿抚养比的变化对居民消费影响较小,老年抚养比的变化对居民消费没有明显影响。据此针对不同地区提出不同建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China has been stuck in the contradiction that the aging degree of the population is becoming increasingly severe, the total burden of raising is increasing and the consumption rate of residents is declining. So how to open the gap of increasing the consumption rate according to the characteristics of the population? This paper constructs a theoretical model of the effect of the change of population age structure on the consumption of residents, and makes an empirical analysis by using the inter-provincial panel data of the eastern and western regions of China. The results show that the dependency ratio of children in the eastern region decreases. The increase of old-age dependency ratio will increase residents' consumption, but the change of children's dependency ratio will have little effect on residents' consumption, but the change of old age's dependency ratio will have no obvious effect on residents' consumption. According to this, different suggestions are put forward for different regions.
【作者单位】：山西财经大学统计学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目《转型期我国东西部地区居民消费差异的趋势分析》(12CTJ006)
【分类号】：C92-05

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