全面二孩政策下中国人口总量的预测

发布时间：2018-06-29 05:10

本文选题：人口预测 + 数据包络分析　；参考：《中国科学技术大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为经济和社会可持续发展的重要载体,人口是整个社会的基础。对未来人口增长的科学预测会给宏观经济和社会规划提供重要的参考价值。对于中国来说,作为世界上人口最多的国家,对人口的研究历来得到广大学者的重视。之前的关于人口增长预测的研究一般是基于时间序列分析。然而,利用时间序列方法对人口进行预测需要一个假设前提,即影响人口变化的外在环境不会发生大的变化,而中国的新的人口政策,即“全面二孩政策”却为我们提供了新的大环境。在此新政策下,利用传统的时间序列分析方法明显是不合适的。另外,中国的经济飞速发展,人们的受教育水平也日益提高,再加上30多年来的计划生育政策的日益渗透,人们的生育观念已经发生了变化,家庭在做出生育决策的时候更加地趋于理性,已有研究证明当前中国的家庭生育行为是由生育成本以及生育效用决定的。因此文章首次将数据包络分析模型引入到人口预测领域,从生育效用的角度对人口增长情况进行预测。生育效用在这里可由人均可支配收入、人均卫生费用以及人均住房面积得到,然后再通过对生育效用的约束得到为了保证一定的生活水平,人口最多增长程度,即人口增长的上限。另外文章继续通过几个常用的时间序列分析模型以及利用历史数据对人口增长进行了预测,并将其结果与数据包络分析得到的结果进行了对比分析,发现通过数据包络分析得到的结果更加地符合当前人口增长的一般规律。最后基于得到的结果,发现二孩政策不会导致婴儿潮,而是会促进生育率温和的增长。在此基础上,文章最后提出了几点关于政策实施的建议,为政府更好地迎接新的人口状况提供参考。
[Abstract]:As an important carrier of economic and social sustainable development, population is the foundation of the whole society. The scientific prediction of the population growth in the future will provide important reference value for the macro economy and social planning. For China, as the most populous country in the world, the study of population has always been paid attention to by many scholars. The study of population growth prediction is generally based on time series analysis. However, the use of time series method to predict population needs a hypothesis, that is, the external environment that affects population changes will not change greatly, and the new population policy of China, the "two child policy", provides a new environment for us. Under this new policy, it is obviously inappropriate to use the traditional time series analysis method. In addition, China's economy is developing rapidly and people's education level is increasing. In addition to the increasing penetration of the family planning policy for more than 30 years, people's concept of fertility has changed, and families are making more decisions on birth. The present study has proved that the family fertility behavior in China is determined by the cost of fertility and the utility of fertility. Therefore, the data envelopment analysis model is introduced to the population forecast field for the first time, and the population growth is predicted from the perspective of fertility utility. In order to ensure a certain living standard, the maximum population growth, that is, the upper limit of population growth, the health cost and the per capita housing area are obtained to ensure a certain level of living, and the article continues to predict the population growth by several common time series analysis models and the use of historical data. The results were compared with the results obtained from the data envelopment analysis. It was found that the results obtained by the data envelopment analysis were more consistent with the general rule of population growth. Finally, based on the results, it was found that the two child policy did not lead to the baby boom, but would promote the moderate growth of fertility. Several suggestions on policy implementation have been put forward to provide references for the government to better meet the new population situation.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2

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