人口老龄化背景下的城乡劳动力资源变动趋势对比研究——兼论乡城劳动力流迁及其影响
发布时间：2018-09-12 08:44
【摘要】：文章以2010年第六次人口普查数据为基础,采用多区域人口预测模型,利用PADIS软件对未来40年城镇和农村劳动力资源总量、结构及未来发展趋势进行对比分析,研究发现,中国劳动年龄人口规模在2014年出现高峰,到2025年开始呈快速下降趋势。受中国二元经济结构影响,劳动年龄人口结构也呈现出城乡分化的差异性特征。未来城镇劳动力资源总量总体呈增加趋势,但会经历先增后减的过程,农村劳动力资源呈逐年下降。从结构观察,城乡劳动年龄人口占总人口的比例均呈现不断下降的趋势,各时期城镇劳动年龄人口占比都高于农村。城镇劳动力老化趋势明显,农村劳动力则经历不断老化再到相对合理的过程。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of the sixth census in 2010, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the total amount, structure and future development trend of labor resources in cities and towns and rural areas in the next 40 years by using the multi-region population prediction model and PADIS software. China's working-age population peaked in 2014 and began to decline rapidly by 2025. Under the influence of China's dual economic structure, the structure of working-age population also shows the difference between urban and rural areas. In the future, the total amount of urban labor resources will increase, but will go through the process of first increasing and then decreasing, and the rural labor resources will decrease year by year. The ratio of urban and rural working-age population to the total population is decreasing, and the proportion of urban working-age population is higher than that of rural population in every period. The aging trend of urban labor force is obvious, while the rural labor force is going through a relatively reasonable process.
【作者单位】： 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院;贵州民族大学管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国人口城乡结构变动与环境可持续发展”(10JJD840005) 北京市属高等学校创新团队建设与教师职业发展计划项目(IDHT20130523) 首都经济贸易大学科研创新项目资助
【分类号】：F249.2;C924.24
本文编号：2238496
[Abstract]:Based on the data of the sixth census in 2010, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the total amount, structure and future development trend of labor resources in cities and towns and rural areas in the next 40 years by using the multi-region population prediction model and PADIS software. China's working-age population peaked in 2014 and began to decline rapidly by 2025. Under the influence of China's dual economic structure, the structure of working-age population also shows the difference between urban and rural areas. In the future, the total amount of urban labor resources will increase, but will go through the process of first increasing and then decreasing, and the rural labor resources will decrease year by year. The ratio of urban and rural working-age population to the total population is decreasing, and the proportion of urban working-age population is higher than that of rural population in every period. The aging trend of urban labor force is obvious, while the rural labor force is going through a relatively reasonable process.
【作者单位】： 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院;贵州民族大学管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国人口城乡结构变动与环境可持续发展”(10JJD840005) 北京市属高等学校创新团队建设与教师职业发展计划项目(IDHT20130523) 首都经济贸易大学科研创新项目资助
【分类号】：F249.2;C924.24
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