影响江苏人口生育率的因素探析

发布时间：2018-10-19 13:01

【摘要】：江苏作为东部经济和人口大省,其人口老龄化比全国提前13年,在短短20年间就进入了加速老龄化阶段,与发达国家历经四五十年才出现老龄化相比,江苏“未富先老”现象突出,这必将对经济社会的发展产生深刻的影响。人口老龄化深层原因的探究对解决这一社会命题有着重大意义。已有研究认为,平均寿命的提高和生育率的下降是引发人口老龄化的主要原因,其中对生育率下降的原因探究是关键。在总结前人研究的基础上,首先阐述了影响生育率的各种因素,并构建了生育率影响因素的理论模型,通过选取适当的统计指标,为实证研究提供足够的理论支持。其次,就江苏省人口和生育率现状进行了描述性统计分析,概括了江苏省的育龄妇女特征,为实证研究提供现实依据。在理论和现实基础上,通过构建结构方程模型,利用Amos软件对江苏省52个县及县级市的统计数据进行拟合,分析了江苏省生育率各影响因素的影响路径和程度。最后,基于2000年江苏省人口普查资料和两种不同的生育水平,对江苏省未来人口规模和人口结构进行了预测比较,提出了相关政策建议,并指出研究中存在的不足及有待进一步研究的问题。根据上述研究得出的主要结论有:(1)江苏省人口规模位居长三角之首,但未来人口发展趋势呈缩减型;新进入育龄期的妇女比重有所上升,育龄妇女受教育程度普遍偏低。(2)计划生育政策对生育率的影响随时间推移而减弱,生育水平的空间分布随经济社会发展水平提高而降低。(3)经济社会因素已成为影响生育率的主要因素,且其滞后期影响大于当期影响,经济社会发展水平与生育率的关系已渡过了倒“U”形的拐点。(4)假设经济社会稳定发展,按照当前的生育水平,江苏老年人口系数在2016年将超过少年儿童系数,老年负担系数逐年上升,对社会养老制度提出了严峻的考验。针对研究结论提出的相关政策建议有:生育政策应进行局部上调;调整时机选择应避开高峰人口的生育期;适度调整范围,应根据经济社会因素对生育率的滞后影响估计出生育率,预测出该生育率水平下的老龄化程度,依老龄化治理目标确定;加快农村养老保险制度的推行和实施,完善城市社会保障制度,在政府监管下推行商业保险,将民间资本引入养老体系。
[Abstract]:Jiangsu, as an eastern economy and a large province with a large population, has an aging population 13 years ahead of that of the whole country. In just 20 years, Jiangsu has entered the stage of accelerated ageing, compared with the aging of developed countries after 40 or 50 years. The phenomenon of "getting old before getting rich" in Jiangsu is prominent, which will have a profound influence on the development of economy and society. The exploration of the deep causes of population aging has great significance to solve this social proposition. It has been suggested that the increase of life expectancy and the decline of fertility rate are the main reasons for the aging of the population, among which the key is to explore the reasons for the decline of the fertility rate. On the basis of summing up the previous studies, this paper first expounds the various factors affecting fertility, and constructs a theoretical model of the influencing factors of fertility, and provides sufficient theoretical support for empirical research by selecting appropriate statistical indicators. Secondly, this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the current situation of population and fertility in Jiangsu Province, summarizes the characteristics of women of childbearing age in Jiangsu Province, and provides a practical basis for empirical research. On the basis of theory and reality, this paper constructs a structural equation model, and uses Amos software to fit the statistical data of 52 counties and county-level cities in Jiangsu Province, and analyzes the influence path and degree of the influencing factors of fertility rate in Jiangsu Province. Finally, based on the data from the 2000 population Census of Jiangsu Province and two different fertility levels, the population size and population structure of Jiangsu Province in the future are forecasted and compared, and relevant policy recommendations are put forward. It also points out the shortcomings of the research and the problems to be further studied. According to the above study, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the population size of Jiangsu Province ranks first in the Yangtze River Delta, but the population development trend in the future is reduced, and the proportion of new women entering childbearing age has increased. The educational attainment of women of childbearing age is generally low. (2) the impact of family planning policies on fertility has weakened over time. The spatial distribution of fertility level decreased with the increase of the level of economic and social development. (3) Economic and social factors have become the main factors affecting fertility rate, and the effect of lag period is greater than that of the current period. The relationship between the level of economic and social development and the fertility rate has passed the turning point of the inverted "U" shape. (4) assuming stable economic and social development, according to the current fertility level, the coefficient of the elderly population in Jiangsu will exceed the coefficient of children and adolescents in 2016. The elderly burden coefficient rises year by year, put forward the severe test to the social endowment system. The related policy recommendations based on the conclusions of the study are as follows: the fertility policy should be partially up-regulated; the timing of the adjustment should avoid the growth period of the peak population; and the range of appropriate adjustment should be appropriate. The fertility rate should be estimated according to the lag influence of economic and social factors on fertility rate, and the degree of aging under this fertility level should be predicted, which should be determined according to the goal of governance of aging, and the implementation and implementation of rural old-age insurance system should be accelerated. Improve the urban social security system, implement commercial insurance under government supervision, and introduce private capital into the pension system.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.2

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