基于切比雪夫最佳逼近原理的俄罗斯人口变化通道

发布时间：2018-10-26 20:42

【摘要】：用切比雪夫最佳逼近原理可以构建一条俄罗斯人口变化的通道。基于该原理得出如下主要结论:(1)俄罗斯的人口发展经历过3个拐点、2个极值点的曲折变化;(2)人口变化率是影响俄罗斯人口变化的内在因素;(3)前苏联解体是影响俄罗斯人口变化的外部条件,这一时期人口变化率是下降的,共同作用下形成了"双降"效应,致使俄罗斯发生了人口危机;(4)俄政府的新人口政策是影响俄罗斯人口变化的重要条件,在人口变化率呈上升的内部因素共同作用下,形成了"双升"效应,使得俄罗斯有了初见成效的人口恢复性增长;(5)俄罗斯的人口发展暂时脱离了下降的通道,出现缓慢上升的趋势,并将延续到2 0 2 0年;(6)如果能经受住2 0 1 6年出现的拐点的考验,使2 0 2 0年的高点不成为"峰"值点,那么俄罗斯的人口变化将迎来可持续增长的一轮新局面;反之,俄罗斯的人口发展将重返下降的通道之中,并形成新一轮的人口危机。
[Abstract]:The best approximation principle of Chebyshev can be used to construct a path of Russian population change. Based on this principle, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the population development of Russia has experienced three inflection points and two extreme points of zigzag change, (2) the rate of population change is the internal factor that affects the Russian population change; (3) the disintegration of the former Soviet Union is the external condition that affects the Russian population change, and the rate of population change is decreasing in this period, and the "double descending" effect is formed under the joint action, which leads to the population crisis in Russia; (4) the Russian government's new population policy is an important condition to influence the Russian population change. Russia has achieved initial results in population recovery growth; (5) the population development in Russia is temporarily out of the descending channel, showing a slow upward trend, and will continue until 2020; (6) if the inflection point in 2016 can be withstood and the high point in 2020 does not become a "peak" point, then the population change in Russia will usher in a new round of sustainable growth; On the contrary, Russia's population will return to the path of decline, and form a new round of population crisis.
【作者单位】：同济大学材料科学与工程学院;
【分类号】：C924.512

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