人口红利变化对中国经济增长影响研究

发布时间：2018-10-30 11:16

【摘要】：1965年以来的东亚增长奇迹引发了人们对于人口红利作用的大讨论,自此人口结构与经济增长的关系逐渐被重视起来。从理论层面看,人口红利期意味着适龄劳动人口比重在总人口中比重较大,能够提供充足的劳动力供给以延缓资本报酬递减,同时较低的社会抚养比能够提高储蓄率,进而有利于资本形成；从现实层面看,中国近三十年来的高速增长确实伴随着适龄劳动人口比重的不断上升,如果中国的高速增长是由人口红利带来的,那么人口红利的逐步消失意味着中国以往的增长模式面临着重要的瓶颈。而本文要回答的问题是,在“人口负债——人口红利——人口负债”的转变过程中,人口红利的这种动态变化对经济增长有何影响?中国的人口红利发生了怎样的变化?这种变化对中国经济增长有何影响?在人口红利变化背景下中国应当如何完成增长模式的转型? 本文试图将人口红利变化对经济增长的影响融入一个增长核算的框架,说明人口红利变化对经济增长的影响,以为后红利时代中国增长模式的转型提供相应的理论基础,同时对近三十年来中国的人口红利变化进行测度,并通过实证分析研究中国的人口红利变化及其对经济增长的影响,以为中国后红利时代的战略转型提供相应的现实基础。本文的论证分为四个层次：首先以人口转变理论为基础,论证人口红利随着经济发展程度而产生的倒U型变化规律,并以调整的索洛-斯旺模型为研究框架,从动态的角度分别探讨人口红利变化对于各生产要素以及技术和效率的影响,认为劳动力供给、资本形成、劳动力配置效率以及人力资本积累是人口年龄结构变化对经济的主要影响机制；其次采取抚养比指标以及增长率分解的办法对中国人口红利变化进行评价,得出结论认为这意味着我国自上世纪80年代中期开始由人口负债期进入人口红利期,并在以后的时期持续扩张,但各省区人口红利收获程度和结构均有不同；再次通过进一步的实证分析证明了人口红利变化对经济增长带来的影响,认为在过去的人口红利变迁过程中,抚养比系数每下降1个百分点,将对经济增长造成相对12.73%的贡献率；最后本文基于全文结论提出了后红利时代下中国经济增长模式的转型,即从高投资、高储蓄为主的外生增长向以技术进步和效率提高为主的内生增长转型,从劳动要素的数量式增长向劳动要素的质量式增长转型,从资源粗放开发式增长向资源高效节约式增长的转型。
[Abstract]:The miracle of East Asian growth since 1965 has led to a great discussion of the role of demographic dividend. Since then, the relationship between population structure and economic growth has been paid more and more attention. In theory, the period of demographic dividend means that the proportion of the working-age population in the total population is large, which can provide sufficient labor supply to delay the decline of capital returns, and the lower social dependency ratio can increase the savings rate. Then it is advantageous to the formation of capital; From a practical point of view, China's rapid growth over the past 30 years has indeed been accompanied by an increasing proportion of the working-age population. If China's rapid growth is brought about by the demographic dividend, The gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend means that China's past growth model faces an important bottleneck. The question to be answered in this paper is, in the course of the transformation of "population debt-demographic dividend-population liability", how does this dynamic change of demographic dividend affect economic growth? How has China's demographic dividend changed? How does this change affect China's economic growth? In the context of demographic dividend changes, how should China complete the transformation of its growth model? This paper attempts to integrate the impact of demographic dividend changes on economic growth into a framework of growth accounting, to explain the impact of demographic dividend changes on economic growth, and to provide a theoretical basis for the transformation of China's growth model in the post-dividend era. At the same time, the paper measures the demographic dividend changes in China in the past three decades, and studies the demographic dividend changes in China and its impact on economic growth through empirical analysis, which provides a realistic basis for the strategic transformation of China's post-dividend era. The argument of this paper is divided into four levels: firstly, based on the theory of population transformation, the paper demonstrates the law of inverted U-shaped change of population dividend with the degree of economic development, and takes the adjusted Solow Swan model as the research framework. From a dynamic point of view, respectively, the impact of demographic dividend changes on various factors of production, technology and efficiency is discussed. It is believed that labor supply, capital formation, The efficiency of labor allocation and the accumulation of human capital are the main influencing mechanisms of the change of population age structure on the economy. Secondly, the dependency ratio index and the decomposition of the growth rate are adopted to evaluate the demographic dividend changes in China, and it is concluded that this means that China began to move from the population debt period to the demographic dividend period from the mid-1980s to the middle of the last century. And continued to expand in the following period, but the harvest degree and structure of the population dividend in the provinces and districts are different; Through further empirical analysis, this paper proves the impact of demographic dividend changes on economic growth, and considers that in the past demographic dividend changes, the dependency ratio coefficient decreases by every 1 percentage point. It will make a relative contribution rate of 12.73% to the economic growth; Finally, based on the conclusion of the paper, this paper puts forward the transformation of China's economic growth model in the post-dividend era, that is, from the external growth with high investment and high savings to the endogenous growth with technological progress and efficiency improvement. The transformation from quantitative growth of labor elements to qualitative growth of labor elements, from extensive development of resources to efficient and economical growth of resources.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C92-05;F124

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