转折点:中国生育率将往何处去——基于欧洲的经验与启示

发布时间：2018-11-03 15:16

【摘要】：中国的生育政策已经开启宽松化进程,政策实施效果备受关注。低于更替水平的生育率能否回升,如何回升,不仅是中国正在面临的重要问题,也是世界上完成人口转变较早的国家需要共同探索的问题。通过对欧洲的生育转变历程的研究可以发现,生育水平下降到更替水平之后,有继续下降的趋势,甚至会达到1.3以下的极低生育水平;但曾经引起广泛担忧的"低生育率陷阱"假说并未被验证,近年来欧洲各国生育率普遍回升。欧洲的经验给予中国三点重要启示:一是要密切观察生育率的变化态势,以便获得下一步决策的充分依据;二是要充分发挥社会经济配套政策的作用,帮助有生育需求的育龄人群实现生育行为;三是要关注区域差异,对于生育水平极低、群众生育意愿偏弱的地区采取必要的针对性政策。
[Abstract]:China's fertility policy has begun the process of easing, the implementation of the policy has received much attention. Whether or not the fertility rate below replacement level can be recovered and how to rise is not only an important issue that China is facing, but also a problem that needs to be explored jointly by the countries that completed the population transition earlier in the world. Through the study of the process of fertility transformation in Europe, it can be found that the fertility level decreases to the replacement level, and the fertility level will continue to decline, even reaching a very low fertility level below 1.3; But the hypothesis of a "low fertility trap", once a cause for widespread concern, has not been tested, and fertility has generally rebounded across Europe in recent years. The European experience has given China three important inspirations: first, it is necessary to closely observe the changing situation of the fertility rate in order to obtain a sufficient basis for the next decision; The second is to give full play to the role of social and economic policies to help the reproductive needs of the population of reproductive age to achieve reproductive behavior; Third, we should pay attention to regional differences and take necessary targeted policies for areas with extremely low fertility level and weak fertility will.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国家庭转变研究”(16JJD840013)
【分类号】：C924.2

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