全面两孩政策对我国人口总量结构的影响分析

发布时间：2018-11-17 11:24

【摘要】：文章利用2014年全国人口变动情况抽样调查数据,按层次递进的方式,分析当前我国育龄夫妇类型和生育状况,得出单独两孩政策目标人群和全面两孩政策的目标人群及年龄构成,利用分类型分年龄的生育意愿数据,分析单独两孩政策对近几年我国出生人口的影响、全面两孩政策对近几年我国出生人口以及未来我国劳动年龄人口等人口结构的影响。文章认为,单独两孩政策对出生人口的增加影响有限,全面两孩政策实施后出生人口较多的几年,大约相当于上世纪八、九十年代出生人口较少的年份,之后,预计出生人口将会逐步减少并趋于稳定;总人口峰值出现年份略有后推,峰值数量稍有增加;该政策对今后我国人口年龄结构的优化、促进出生人口性别比平衡可以起到积极作用。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the types and fertility status of couples of childbearing age in China in accordance with the data of the 2014 National sample Survey of population change and the way of hierarchical progression. The target population and age composition of the policy of single two-child policy and the comprehensive two-child policy are obtained. Based on the data of childbearing will by type and age, the influence of the policy on the population born in China in recent years is analyzed. The effect of the two-child policy on the population structure of China in recent years, such as birth population and future working age population. The article holds that the single two-child policy has a limited impact on the increase in the number of births. After the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, the number of years with a larger number of births is about the same as that in the 1980s and 1990s, when the number of births was relatively small. It is expected that the number of births will gradually decrease and stabilize; This policy can play a positive role in optimizing the age structure of the population and promoting the balance of the sex ratio of the birth population in the future.
【作者单位】：国家统计局人口和就业统计司专项调查处;国家统计局人口和就业统计司;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“全面两孩生育政策的实施效应研究”(15ZDC036)资助
【分类号】：C924.21

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