济宁市人口老龄化状况及影响分析
发布时间：2018-12-18 12:10
【摘要】： 人口老龄化是总人口中老年人口比重不断升高的动态发展过程,是伴随人口再生产类型转变而出现的一种现象,是人类社会进步的表现。本文从实证主义研究的角度,专门研究了社会变迁过程中山东省17个地级市之一——济宁市人口老龄化过程,预测其发展趋势并分析其结果,以预见老龄化对社会产生的影响,提出了相应的对策。 运用文献研究方法对国内外老龄化研究现状进行综述,本文借鉴了已有的研究成果,尤其在人口预测方面。评述了人口转变理论和生命周期理论,并运用人口转变理论将济宁市老龄化的根本原因归因于人类社会生产力的进步,使用生命周期理论解释老龄化对社会经济的影响以及大力发展经济的必要性。 通过比较济宁市与山东省人口老龄化变动过程,发现两者的变动过程是一致的,老龄化的趋势越来越明显;但是在老龄化的各项具体指标和进入老年型社会的时间方面,济宁市并不同于山东省。分析显示,济宁市进入老龄化社会的时间比全省晚;老龄化水平比同期全省低;但是老龄化速度比全省快;老年人口抚养比低于全省,而总人口抚养比略高于全省,但仍处于“人口红利期”。 使用人口预测软件(CPPS)预测了济宁市未来20年老年人口发展趋势,结果显示老年人口系数和数量快速上升,老龄化速度加快、程度加深,呈现出高龄化,老年人口性别比升高,老少比、老年人口抚养比和总人口抚养比快速上升,“人口红利”优势逐渐消失,济宁市老龄化的进程加快。 根据前文对人口老龄化发展状况的研究,分析了老龄化对社会的影响,包括社会保障体系、不同老年群体的养老问题、现行计划生育政策以及劳动年龄人口的就业问题,并提出了相应的对策和建议。 结论是济宁市人口老龄化的趋势越来越明显,需要我们转变消极观念,正确看待老龄化。济宁市政府需要充分发挥政府的主导作用,大力发展经济,积极贯彻落实科学发展观,维护社会秩序的稳定,采取措施积极应对老龄化。
[Abstract]:The aging of population is a dynamic development process in which the proportion of the elderly population in the total population is increasing continuously. It is a phenomenon which appears with the change of the reproduction type of population and the manifestation of the progress of human society. From the perspective of positivism, this paper studies the aging process of population in Jining, one of the 17 prefectural cities in Shandong Province, forecasts its development trend and analyzes its results in order to foresee the impact of aging on society. The corresponding countermeasures are put forward. This paper summarizes the current situation of aging research at home and abroad by using literature research methods, and draws lessons from the existing research results, especially in population prediction. This paper reviews the theory of population transformation and life cycle theory, and uses the theory of population transformation to attribute the root cause of the aging of Jining City to the progress of human social productivity. Life cycle theory is used to explain the influence of aging on social economy and the necessity of developing economy. By comparing the changing process of population aging in Jining City and Shandong Province, it is found that the process of change is the same, and the trend of aging is more and more obvious. However, Jining is different from Shandong Province in terms of the specific indicators of aging and the time of entering the aged society. The analysis shows that the aging time of Jining is later than that of the whole province, the level of aging is lower than that of the same period, but the speed of aging is faster than that of the whole province. The dependency ratio of the elderly population is lower than that of the whole province, while the total population dependency ratio is slightly higher than that of the whole province, but it is still in the period of population dividend. The population prediction software (CPPS) was used to predict the development trend of the elderly population in Jining in the next 20 years. The results showed that the coefficient and quantity of the elderly population were rising rapidly, the aging speed was quickening, the degree of aging was deepening, and the aging of the elderly population appeared. The sex ratio of the elderly population increased, the old and young ratio, the dependency ratio of the elderly population and the total population dependency ratio increased rapidly, the advantage of "demographic dividend" gradually disappeared, and the aging process of Jining was accelerated. Based on the previous research on the development of aging population, this paper analyzes the impact of aging on society, including the social security system, the pension problems of different elderly groups, the current family planning policy and the employment of the working-age population. The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. The conclusion is that the trend of population aging in Jining is becoming more and more obvious. Jining municipal government needs to give full play to the leading role of the government, vigorously develop the economy, actively implement the concept of scientific development, maintain the stability of social order, and take measures to deal with the aging of the population.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.24
本文编号：2385825
[Abstract]:The aging of population is a dynamic development process in which the proportion of the elderly population in the total population is increasing continuously. It is a phenomenon which appears with the change of the reproduction type of population and the manifestation of the progress of human society. From the perspective of positivism, this paper studies the aging process of population in Jining, one of the 17 prefectural cities in Shandong Province, forecasts its development trend and analyzes its results in order to foresee the impact of aging on society. The corresponding countermeasures are put forward. This paper summarizes the current situation of aging research at home and abroad by using literature research methods, and draws lessons from the existing research results, especially in population prediction. This paper reviews the theory of population transformation and life cycle theory, and uses the theory of population transformation to attribute the root cause of the aging of Jining City to the progress of human social productivity. Life cycle theory is used to explain the influence of aging on social economy and the necessity of developing economy. By comparing the changing process of population aging in Jining City and Shandong Province, it is found that the process of change is the same, and the trend of aging is more and more obvious. However, Jining is different from Shandong Province in terms of the specific indicators of aging and the time of entering the aged society. The analysis shows that the aging time of Jining is later than that of the whole province, the level of aging is lower than that of the same period, but the speed of aging is faster than that of the whole province. The dependency ratio of the elderly population is lower than that of the whole province, while the total population dependency ratio is slightly higher than that of the whole province, but it is still in the period of population dividend. The population prediction software (CPPS) was used to predict the development trend of the elderly population in Jining in the next 20 years. The results showed that the coefficient and quantity of the elderly population were rising rapidly, the aging speed was quickening, the degree of aging was deepening, and the aging of the elderly population appeared. The sex ratio of the elderly population increased, the old and young ratio, the dependency ratio of the elderly population and the total population dependency ratio increased rapidly, the advantage of "demographic dividend" gradually disappeared, and the aging process of Jining was accelerated. Based on the previous research on the development of aging population, this paper analyzes the impact of aging on society, including the social security system, the pension problems of different elderly groups, the current family planning policy and the employment of the working-age population. The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. The conclusion is that the trend of population aging in Jining is becoming more and more obvious. Jining municipal government needs to give full play to the leading role of the government, vigorously develop the economy, actively implement the concept of scientific development, maintain the stability of social order, and take measures to deal with the aging of the population.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.24
【引证文献】
中国硕士学位论文全文数据库 前2条
1 薛庆多;政府应对人口老龄化的策略研究[D];东北财经大学;2011年
2 韩云飞;机构养老问题探究[D];山东财经大学;2012年
，本文编号：2385825
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