民勤县人口-农业经济-生态耦合协调发展研究

发布时间：2019-02-28 09:38

【摘要】：新时期“五大发展”理念的提出,使得人口、经济与生态的协调发展问题越来越多的受到学术界和社会的热切关注与重视。良好的生态环境是人类活动与社会经济发展的物质基础;持续的经济发展则为生态环境保护和人类健康发展提供基础保障;人口作为消费者和创造者,是调控经济发展和生态环境运行方向的主导力量,也是协调二者关系的纽带。人口、经济与生态三者之间相互作用、相互影响、相互制约,忽略任何一者都会严重制约整个区域的可持续发展。但伴随着我国人口数量的增多、经济的快速发展,其与生态环境的矛盾逐步显现,尤其是西北干旱脆弱区。农民过度的农业生产经营活动,虽然短期内可以促进农业经济发展,提高人均收入水平;但长期来看,会给当地生态环境造成严重的破坏性影响。因此,如何科学客观的评判人口、农业经济与生态的相互作用关系,对促进三者协调发展及实现区域可持续发展尤为重要。本文在全面梳理国内外关于人口、经济和生态耦合协调方面相关研究的基础上,以民勤县为研究区域,根据民勤县人口、农业经济及生态方面的数据,在对三者相互作用机理和发展现状介绍的基础上,采用变异系数法和耦合协调度模型,对2000~2014年民勤县人口系统、农业经济系统与生态系统各自综合发展水平及三者耦合协调发展关系的动态变化进行了测算和分析。研究结果表明:1)2000~2014年民勤县人口、农业经济和生态系统的综合评价指数最大值分别为0.578、0.663和0.412,三者总体发展水平均较低,其中农业经济发展相对较快,人口发展有待优化,生态问题尤为突出。2)近15年来民勤县人口—农业经济—生态系统耦合度和耦合协调度大体均呈先下降后上升的趋势。耦合度C在0.372~0.696间波动,经历了颉颃耦合和磨合耦合两个阶段,现处于磨合耦合阶段;耦合协调度D在0.325~0.639间波动,2000~2006年从失调衰退向过渡调和更替变化,2007~2014年由过渡调和向协调发展转变,整体实现了由失调衰退到协调发展的良性转化。3)影响民勤县人口、农业经济与生态系统三者耦合协调发展的因素主要表现在产业结构调整、自然生态环境、资源利用和人口压力四个大的方面。最后,依据实证结果和主要制约因素,有针对性地从以下五个方面提出了建议:控制人口数量,优化城乡结构;加大教育移民,提高人口素质;调整农业产业结构,发展特色优势产业;转变农业发展方式,提高资源利用效率;合理分配利用资源,加强生态环境治理。
[Abstract]:In the new period, the concept of "five great development" is put forward, which makes the coordinated development of population, economy and ecology get more and more attention and attention from academia and society. Good ecological environment is the material basis of human activities and socio-economic development, and sustainable economic development provides basic guarantee for ecological environment protection and human healthy development. As consumers and creators, population is the leading force to regulate the direction of economic development and ecological environment operation, and it is also the link to coordinate the relationship between them. The interaction, influence and restriction of population, economy and ecology will seriously restrict the sustainable development of the whole region. However, with the increase of population and the rapid development of economy in China, the contradiction between it and ecological environment appears gradually, especially in the arid and fragile areas of northwest China. The excessive agricultural production and management of farmers can promote the development of agricultural economy and raise the level of per capita income in the short term, but in the long run, it will cause serious damage to the local ecological environment. Therefore, how to scientifically and objectively judge the interaction between population, agricultural economy and ecology is particularly important to promote the coordinated development of the three and to realize the sustainable development of the region. Based on a comprehensive review of domestic and foreign research on population, economic and ecological coupling and coordination, this paper takes Minqin County as the research area, and according to the data on population, agricultural economy and ecology of Minqin County, On the basis of introducing the interaction mechanism and the present situation of the development of the three, this paper adopts the coefficient of variation method and the coupling coordination degree model to analyze the population system of Minqin County in 2000-2014. The dynamic changes of the comprehensive development level of agricultural economic system and ecosystem and the coupling and coordinated development of the three systems were measured and analyzed. The results show that: 1) the maximum values of population, agricultural economy and ecosystem comprehensive evaluation index of Minqin County in 2000-2014 are 0.578, 0.663 and 0.412, respectively. The overall development level of these three indexes is relatively low, among which the agricultural economy develops relatively fast, and the comprehensive evaluation index of agricultural economy and ecosystem is 0.578, 0.663 and 0.412, respectively. The population development needs to be optimized, especially ecological problems. 2) in the last 15 years, the coupling degree and coordination degree of population-agriculture economy-ecosystem in Minqin County have generally decreased first and then increased. The coupling degree C fluctuated between 0.372and 0.696, and went through two stages: antagonistic coupling and running-in coupling, and now it is in the running-in coupling stage. The degree of coupling coordination D fluctuated between 0.325 and 0.639. From 2000 to 2006, the degree of coupling coordination changed from maladjustment recession to transition harmonic replacement, and from 2007 to 2014, it changed from transition harmonic to coordinated development. 3) the factors that affect the coupling and coordinated development of population, agricultural economy and ecosystem in Minqin County are mainly reflected in the adjustment of industrial structure, natural ecological environment, and so on, and the main factors that affect the harmonious development of Minqin County population, agricultural economy and ecosystem are the adjustment of industrial structure and natural ecological environment. Four major aspects of resource utilization and population pressure. Finally, according to the empirical results and main constraints, suggestions are put forward from the following five aspects: control the population, optimize the structure of urban and rural areas, increase education migration, improve the quality of the population; We should adjust the agricultural industrial structure, develop the characteristic advantage industry, change the agricultural development mode, improve the efficiency of resource utilization, rationally distribute and utilize the resources, and strengthen the ecological environment management.
【学位授予单位】：甘肃农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F327

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