蒙古国人口发展研究

发布时间：2019-06-19 16:30

【摘要】：人口是人类社会发展最基础、最重要的因素。人类文明的起点需要一定规模的人口，人类进步和发展依赖于人口规模的扩大，没有一定规模的人口，文明的延续和宗族的繁衍将受到威胁。另一方面，全球人口规模的急剧扩大也对人类发展构成新挑战。蒙古地处亚洲中部，总面积156.65万平方公里，世界上第二大内陆国家，国土面积在全世界排第18位。蒙古草原辽阔，矿产资源丰富，但是人口仅有275.5万人（2010年），全国人口密度为每平方公里1.76人。蒙古人口问题主要体现在以下几个方面：一是人口规模小，人口密度低；二是农村人口不断向城市迁移的同时，高素质人口大量向国外迁移；三是城市化过度集中，2010年乌兰巴托的人口占全国的43%，同时失业率持续上升；四是贫富差距逐步扩大等。与此同时，蒙古人口问题与社会结构调整、经济转型、城市化等问题交织在一起，使得人口问题显得更为突出之一。在这种背景下，本文选择蒙古人口问题为研究课题，依据蒙古历次人口普查数据，特别是2010年人口普查数据，对蒙古人口总量、生育、死亡、迁移、城市化等问题开展全面研究。本文研究主要依据蒙古历次人口普查资料，特别是对2010年人口普查资料进行了深度挖掘，不仅详细分析了目前蒙古的人口情况，对现代蒙古人口发展态势、人口结构、迁移与城市化等进行分析，探讨人口变化对经济社会发展的影响，同时对蒙古人口的发展趋势进行预测，分析蒙古经济社会发展过程中可能遇到的人口问题，探讨相关人口政策，不仅可以丰富蒙古人口领域的相关研究成果，而且对探索蒙古人口与社会经济协调发展道路具有积极意义。本文研究内容共包括八章。第一章为绪论部分，主要阐述本文选题的背景、研究意义、理论基础、国内外相关研究成果综述、研究内容和结构安排等。第二章全面分析蒙古国人口发展变动的特点，阐述人口发展的三个阶段性时期变化特点，通过分析生育率、死亡率和自然增长率等因素，说明蒙古国人口转变的过程和趋势，并且研究人口再生产类型变化的原因。重点分析影响蒙古人口发展的主要因素，，并探讨蒙古人口发展面临的主要问题，全面揭示蒙古人口发展历史与现状。第三章分析蒙古的生育水平，从出生率、生育率、总和生育率等方面分析育龄妇女生育水平变动的特点和趋势，并结合蒙古经济社会发展，探讨影响生育水平变动的各种因素，最后提出蒙古生育模型。第四章研究蒙古人口死亡问题，从人口死亡率、婴儿死亡率、平均预期寿命等方面，探讨蒙古人口死亡变动的特点，并且分析影响死亡的各种因素。第五章分析蒙古人口迁移，重点研究人口迁移的历史与现状，揭示人口迁移规模、人口迁移流向以及迁移人口的各种典型特征，分析人口迁移的原因，并重点研究蒙古的国际人口迁移特点。第六章分析蒙古人口结构变动，主要探讨人口年龄结构、性别结构、区域分布、产业结构的特点，研究人口结构感动于社会经济发展的关系。第七章分析蒙古人口城市化的特点和趋势，通过分析蒙古城市化的历史，揭示城市化与工业化发展的特点，阐述城市化面临的主要问题，分析蒙古城市就业问题以及失业原因。蒙古人口城市化与经济增长保持了高度的同向性，不仅造成了环境污染的问题，而且造成劳动力就业问题、人口素质问题、城乡发展差距扩大等问题。第八章对蒙古未来人口进行预测，并且结合蒙古未来人口与社会经济发展目标，分析蒙古人口政策及其变动趋势，在此基础上提出研究结论。本文有所创新之处在于，全面分析了1918年以来蒙古人口的变化情况，将蒙古人口变化与自然条件、社会经济发展结合起来，特别是重点研究1991年蒙古经济体制转轨以后人口变化的特点，将蒙古的经济社会问题与人口问题紧密结合在一起。同时，本文结合相关理论对蒙古人口的发展趋势进行预测，对蒙古人口政策进行梳理，并提出相关建议。
[Abstract]:Population is the most basic and important factor in the development of human society. The starting point of human civilization requires a certain scale of population. Human progress and development depend on the expansion of the scale of the population. Without a certain scale of population, the continuation of the civilization and the reproduction of the clan will be threatened. On the other hand, the rapid expansion of the global population size has also posed a new challenge to human development. Mongolia is located in the middle of Asia with a total area of 156.65 million square kilometers, and the second largest landlocked country in the world, and the land area is ranked 18 in the world Its vast, rich mineral resources, but there are only 275,000 people in the population (2010), with a national population density of 1.76 per square kilometre The problem of the population of Mongolia is mainly reflected in the following aspects: first, the population is small and the population density is low; the second, the rural population is moving towards the city, and the high-quality population is largely moved to the outside; the third is the over-concentration of the urbanization, and the population of Ulaanbaatar in 2010 accounts for 43 of the whole country At the same time, the unemployment rate has continued to rise, and the gap between the rich and the poor At the same time, the problem of the population of Mongolia and the problems of social structure adjustment, economic transformation and urbanization are intertwined, so that the population problem is more prominent. I. In this context, the paper selects the Mongolian population problem as the research subject, and carries out comprehensive research on the total population of Mongolia, the birth, the death, the migration, the urbanization and so on, in accordance with the data of the previous census of Mongolia, in particular the 2010 census data. The research is based on the data of the previous census in Mongolia, especially the data of the 2010 census, which not only analyses the current situation of the population in Mongolia, but also analyses the current situation of the population, the population structure, the migration and the urbanization of the modern Mongolian population. On the basis of line analysis, the paper discusses the influence of population change on the economic and social development, and forecasts the development trend of the Mongolian population, analyzes the population problem that may be encountered in the process of economic and social development of Mongolia, and probes into the relevant population policy, not only can enrich the relevant research in the area of Mongolian population To study the results, and to have an area for exploring the development of the Mongolian population and the socio-economic development road The significance of this paper. The contents of this paper The first chapter is the introduction part, mainly expounds the background, the research significance, the theoretical foundation, the domestic and foreign research results, the research contents and the research contents. The second chapter comprehensively analyzes the characteristics of the change of population development in Mongolia, and expounds the characteristics of the three stages of population development. By analyzing the factors such as fertility rate, mortality rate and natural growth rate, the paper states that the population of Mongolia Process and trend of change and study population reproduction The main factors that affect the development of the Mongolian population are analyzed and the main problems facing the development of the Mongolian population are analyzed, and the Mongolian population is fully revealed. The third chapter analyses the fertility level of Mongolia, analyzes the characteristics and trends of the change in the fertility of women of childbearing age from the aspects of the birth rate, the fertility rate and the total fertility rate, and discusses the various factors that affect the change of the fertility level in combination with the economic and social development of Mongolia. The fourth chapter is to study the characteristics of Mongolian population death from the aspects of population death rate, infant mortality, average life expectancy and so on. The paper analyses the various factors that affect the death of the population. The fifth chapter analyzes the history and present situation of the migration of the population, and focuses on the history and the present situation of the migration of the population, reveals the scale of the migration, the migration direction of the population and the typical characteristics of the migration of the population, analyzes the causes of the migration, and focuses on the reasons for the migration of the population. The paper studies the characteristics of the international migration of Mongolia. Chapter 6 analyzes the changes of the population structure in Mongolia, mainly discusses the age structure of the population, the sex structure, the regional distribution and the characteristics of the industrial structure. The paper analyses the characteristics and trends of the urbanization of the Mongolian population, analyses the history of the urbanization of Mongolia, and reveals the characteristics of the urbanization and the industrial development, and expounds the main problems facing the urbanization. The problem of the employment of the city in Mongolia and the causes of unemployment are analyzed. The urbanization and economic growth of the Mongolian population have kept the high level of the same direction, which not only caused the problem of environmental pollution, but also caused the employment of the labor force. Chapter 8 forecasts the future population of Mongolia, and analyses the Mongolian population and politics with the goal of the future population and socio-economic development of Mongolia The innovation of this paper is to analyze the change of the population in Mongolia since 1918, and combine the change of the population of Mongolia with the natural conditions and the development of the social and economic development. The characteristics of population change after the transition of the Mongolian economic system in 991, will The economic and social problems of Mongolia are closely combined with the population problem. At the same time, the development trend of the Mongolian population is pre-determined by the relevant theories.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.2

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