房价、迁移摩擦与中国城市的规模分布——理论模型与结构式估计

发布时间：2018-01-26 21:16

本文关键词： 迁移摩擦结构式估计城市规模分布　出处：《经济研究》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：决定城市规模分布的关键因素有哪些?中国城市体系扁平化的形成机制又是什么?为回答这些问题,本文建立了一个考虑异质性个体迁移决策和房价内生性的城市体系模型,将影响城市规模分布的因素分解为效率、舒适度、迁移摩擦和房价四个方面:较高的效率和舒适度会促使城市规模增加,但相伴而生的高房价和迁移摩擦等集聚负外部性会抑制大城市规模的进一步扩张。进而基于结构式估计方法对中国城市的效率、迁移摩擦、房价和舒适度等特征进行了量化,并通过一系列反事实实验模拟了这些因素的变化对中国城市规模分布的影响。研究发现,效率、迁移摩擦和舒适度在中国城市规模分布的决定中发挥着重要的作用;消除城市间的房价差异几乎不影响人口的再配置,而消除迁移摩擦则会导致大规模的人口重新配置和带来显著的福利增进效应,这意味着迁移摩擦的存在是造成中国城市体系扁平化的关键致因。因此,全面推进户籍制度改革,有序放开城市的落户限制,进一步降低人口迁移中的空间摩擦,才能有效发挥市场的内生化力量,促进城市体系空间布局的优化。
[Abstract]:What are the key factors that determine the size of the city? What is the formation mechanism of flat urban system in China? In order to answer these questions, this paper establishes a model of urban system considering heterogeneous individual migration decision and house price endogeneity, which decomposes the factors that affect the distribution of urban scale into efficiency and comfort. Migration friction and housing price four aspects: higher efficiency and comfort will promote the size of the city to increase. However, the concomitant negative externalities such as high house prices and migration friction will restrain the further expansion of large cities, and then transfer friction based on the structural estimation method to the efficiency of Chinese cities. The characteristics of house price and comfort are quantified, and the effects of these factors on the distribution of urban scale in China are simulated by a series of counterfactual experiments. Migration friction and comfort play an important role in the decision of urban scale distribution in China. Eliminating the difference in house prices between cities will hardly affect the population reconfiguration, while eliminating migration friction will lead to large-scale population redistribution and bring about significant welfare enhancement effects. This means that the existence of migration friction is the key cause of the flattening of Chinese urban system. Only by further reducing the spatial friction in population migration can the market give full play to the endogenous forces of the market and promote the optimization of the spatial distribution of the urban system.
【作者单位】：东南大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大招标项目“新型城镇化背景下城市边界调整与城市综合承载力提升路径研究”(14&ZD138);国家社科基金一般项目“转型背景下我国城市蔓延的形成机理与经济效率影响研究”(15BJL107) 江苏省社科研究基地项目(13JDB024) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2242014R30015)的资助
【分类号】：C912.81;F299.2
【正文快照】： *刘修岩、李松林,东南大学经济管理学院,邮政编码:210096,电子信箱:lxiuyan320@seu.edu.cn,lslseu@163.com。本文得一、引言改革开放以来,中国的城镇化率已从1978年的17.9%提高到了2015年的56.1%。在这一快速的城镇化过程中,中国涌现出大规模、高强度的人口流动,人口的空间集

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