转型期中国社会风险预警指标体系研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 01:03

本文选题：社会风险　切入点：社会风险预警　出处：《华中师范大学》2011年博士论文

【摘要】：关注风险与和谐是人类社会的永恒话题。目前,处于急剧社会转型期的中国也正面临着诸多社会风险的威胁与挑战。加强社会风险预警,建构一套科学实用并符合中国国情的社会风险预警指标体系乃是当前摆在人们面前的重大理论问题和现实问题。只有建构社会风险预警指标体系,才能适时监控社会风险的发展状态,及时发布各种社会风险警情,尤其是及时发布那些重大社会风险警报,从而为政府部门制定相关政策提供参考依据,并动员社会力量将风险控制在社会承受力范围之内,以防患于未然。由此可见,社会风险预警指标体系建构是建设和谐社会,实现社会良性运行与协调发展的必然选择。基于此,本论文在国内外相关理论的指导下,分析转型期的重大社会风险源,探讨指标体系建构的结构模型,并依据科学方法建构一套社会风险预警指标体系及各级指标的权重,将指标体系应用在转型期社会风险的综合评价中。论文关注的主要问题有：建构社会风险预警指标体系需要从哪些理论中吸取养分,如何将抽象的理论转化为具体的指标,采用什么样的方法选择指标并确定指标的权重,如何进行风险的综合评价?总之,建构社会风险预警指标体系,科学理论的指导和方法的应用是两大关键。基于此,本文的主要研究内容包括：导论。主要说明本研究的缘起和意义,检视和评论国内外已有的研究,界定了主要概念,并交待了行文逻辑以及研究方法。第一章,研究社会风险预警的理论基础,讨论风险社会理论、社会冲突理论等在社会风险预警指标体系建构中所具有的启发意义。第二章,分析转型期中国社会风险源,为社会风险预警指标体系的建构提供现实依据。首先探讨社会转型与社会风险的内在逻辑,揭示工业化、城市化、市场化和全球化与社会风险的关联；其次,根据转型期中国社会发展的现状,探讨和研究当前主要社会风险的基本现状,尤其关注的是与民生息息相关的、结构性和制度性的各种风险,包括人口风险、经济生活风险、社会生活风险、政治生活风险、文化心理风险和自然生态风险；最后,分析转型时期社会风险具有的复合性、结构性、扩散性、多发性和高危性等特征,从而再现了转型期中国的社会风险景象。第三章,研究社会风险预警指标体系建构中的结构模型。社会指标体系建构的过程实质上就是从理论到模型再到指标的逐步操作化的过程。结构模型将抽象的理论和具体的指标联接起来,从而为下一步指标体系的设计提供有力的理论支撑和方法指导。本章提出了转型时期社会风险景象图、社会风险预警指标体系建构的三维图,详细分析了社会风险预警指标体系建构的时间维结构模型和逻辑维结构模型。第四章,建构转型期中国社会风险预警指标体系。这是本文研究的重点,主要讨论指标体系建构的基本原则和出发点,根据专家咨询方法和社会统计数据分析,设计包含六个一级指标、十九个二级指标、四十八个三级指标的社会风险预警指标体系的基本框架,并对具体指标含义作出解释。第五章,确定社会风险预警指标体系各级指标的权重。在专家咨询的基础上,应用聚类分析、幂法、相似系数加权等一系列技术手段,将专家的主观判断和统计技术结合起来,将定性研究和定量研究结合起来,从而保证了权重确定的科学性。第六章,综合评价转型期中国社会风险状况。根据本文建立的社会风险预警指标体系,收集各种统计数据和调查数据,将预警指标进行无量纲化变换并构造社会风险综合评价模型后,对当前中国的社会风险状况做全面的评估,计算出总体风险指标值和各二级指标的风险值。第七章,结论及展望。主要对本研究中所涉及的有关理论和方法问题所作的全面归纳及提升,并在此基础上提出有待进一步探讨的问题。
[Abstract]:It is an eternal topic of human society to pay attention to risk and harmony . At present , China is facing many threats and challenges of social risks . At present , it is an inevitable choice to construct a set of scientific and practical social risk alert indicators .

The main problems of this paper are : how to construct the index system of social risk pre - warning , how to absorb nutrients from the theories , how to transform abstract theory into specific index , how to select the index and determine the weight of the index , how to carry out the comprehensive evaluation of risk ?

Based on this , the main research contents include :

This paper mainly explains the origin and significance of the study , examines and reviews the existing studies at home and abroad , defines the main concepts , and submits the logic of the line and the research methods .

The first chapter is to study the theoretical foundation of social risk early warning , discuss the significance of risk society theory , social conflict theory and so on in the construction of social risk early warning index system .

The second chapter analyzes the social risk sources in the period of transition , and provides the realistic basis for the construction of the social risk early warning index system . Firstly , the internal logic of social transformation and social risk is discussed , and the correlation between industrialization , urbanization , marketization and globalization and social risk is revealed .
Secondly , according to the present situation of China ' s social development in the period of transition , the present situation of the present major social risks is discussed and studied , and the risks including population risk , economic life risk , social life risk , political life risk , cultural psychological risk and natural ecological risk are discussed .
Finally , it analyzes the characteristics of the social risks in the transitional period , such as compound , structural , diffuse , multiple and high - risk , and thus reproduces the social risk scene in the transitional period .

In the third chapter , the structure model in the construction of the index system of social risk early warning is studied . The process of constructing the social index system is from the theory to the model to the gradual operation of the index . The structural model provides powerful theoretical support and method guidance for the design of the next step index system . This chapter puts forward three - dimensional map of the social risk scene graph and the construction of the social risk early warning index system , and analyzes the time dimension structure model and the logical dimension structure model of the social risk early warning index system .

In chapter 4 , the index system of social risk early warning in China is set up . This is the focus of this paper . It mainly discusses the basic principles and starting points of the construction of the index system . According to the expert consultation method and the data analysis of social statistics , the basic frame of the social risk early warning index system including six primary indicators , nineteen second - level indicators and forty - eight third - level indicators is designed , and the meaning of the specific indicators is explained .

In the fifth chapter , the weights of indicators at all levels are determined . On the basis of expert consultation , a series of technical means such as cluster analysis , power method and similarity coefficient weighting are applied to combine subjective judgement and statistical techniques of experts , and qualitative research and quantitative research are combined to ensure the scientific nature of weight determination .

The sixth chapter comprehensively evaluates the social risk situation of China in the period of transition . According to the social risk early warning index system established in this paper , various statistical data and survey data are collected , the warning index is transformed and the comprehensive evaluation model of the social risk is constructed , and the risk value of the overall risk index value and each secondary index is calculated .

In chapter 7 , the conclusions and prospects are summarized and the problems related to the theory and method in this study are summarized and promoted , and the problems to be discussed further are put forward .

【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C912

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