风险视角下的城市聚落形成模拟

发布时间：2018-04-20 09:31

本文选题：风险态度 + 城市聚落　；参考：《人文地理》2017年04期

【摘要】：幂次法则是普遍存在于自然科学和社会科学界的现象,而城市位序—规模法则是幂次法则在城市科学中的体现之一,然而特定城市规模分布一直缺乏完整的解释。本文尝试结合城市增长过程中土地开发行为的报酬递增规则与土地开发主体的风险认知行为,以城市增长的微观过程为切入视角模拟宏观城市聚落演化过程,进而探讨风险态度对城市聚落形态,尤其是对其规模分布的影响。研究结果表明:(1)即使城市聚落演化过程中存在多种风险态度,幂次法则在城市聚落的规模分布中仍保持着稳健性;(2)现实世界中城市聚落规模分布的变异和稳定可能来自城市主体风险态度的多样性。
[Abstract]:Power law is a common phenomenon in natural science and social science, while the law of city order and scale is one of the embodiment of power law in urban science. However, the distribution of specific city scale has not been fully explained. This paper attempts to combine the rules of increasing returns of land development behavior and the risk cognition behavior of land developers in the process of urban growth, and take the microscopic process of urban growth as the angle of view to simulate the evolution process of macro-urban settlements. Then the influence of risk attitude on urban settlement morphology, especially on its scale distribution is discussed. The results show that even though there are multiple risk attitudes in the evolution of urban settlements, The power law still maintains robustness in the scale distribution of urban settlements (2) the variation and stability of urban settlement scale distribution in the real world may come from the diversity of risk attitude of urban subjects.
【作者单位】：浙江大学建筑工程学院;浙江大学公共管理学院;同济大学建筑与城市规划学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51278526) 浙江省之江青年计划项目(11ZJQN029YB)
【分类号】：C912.81

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