林业决策支持系统的统计评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 09:33

本文选题：决策支持系统 + 系统结构　；参考：《东北林业大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前对林业决策支持系统的研究主要关注于系统结构设计和软件开发,缺乏对系统决策支持能力的重视。本文运用统计相关理论和方法研究林业决策支持系统,对完善林业决策支持系统建设,辅助决策者正确处理林业半结构化或非结构化决策问题,提高林业管理和决策水平,实现林业可持续发展,推动林业现代化建设具有重要的意义。本文主要运用模糊综合评价法研究林业决策支持系统的性能。首先,根据对林业决策支持系统内涵和基本特征的理解,明确了统计与林业决策支持系统的关系。在系统论的指导下,将林业决策支持系统的结构划分为数据子系统、模型和方法子系统、人机交互子系统、科技人员子系统,尤其是科技人员子系统,它将林业专家、计算机人员、决策者作为一个整体,强调系统建设过程中人参与的重要性,在量化分析的基础上,突出系统的智能效果,区别于以往单纯强调依赖林业专家知识构建知识系统的结构形式。在此基础上,对每个子系统的影响因素进行分析,构建了林业决策支持系统层次结构评价指标体系,包括目标层,4大准则层,14项要素层。采用层次分析法和专家咨询法对各指标赋予相应的权重,根据指标的特点,建立模糊综合评价模型,按照最大隶属度原则确定系统的决策支持等级。最后,根据系统评价结果,从各指标评价标准角度,全面分析系统存在的问题,并提出完善林业决策支持系统建设的对策和建议。
[Abstract]:At present, the research of forestry decision support system mainly focuses on system structure design and software development, and lacks of attention to the ability of system decision support. In this paper, the theory and method of statistics are used to study forestry decision support system, which can improve the construction of forestry decision support system, assist decision makers to deal with the problem of forestry semi-structured or unstructured decision correctly, and improve the level of forestry management and decision-making. It is of great significance to realize the sustainable development of forestry and promote the construction of forestry modernization. In this paper, the performance of forestry decision support system is studied by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Firstly, the relationship between statistics and forestry decision support system is clarified according to the understanding of the connotation and basic characteristics of forestry decision support system. Under the guidance of system theory, the structure of forestry decision support system is divided into data subsystem, model and method subsystem, human-computer interaction subsystem, sci-tech subsystem, especially sci-tech subsystem. As a whole, computer personnel and decision makers emphasize the importance of human participation in the process of system construction, and stress the intelligent effect of the system on the basis of quantitative analysis. The structural form of building knowledge system is different from that of relying on forestry expert knowledge in the past. On this basis, the influencing factors of each subsystem are analyzed, and the evaluation index system of forestry decision support system hierarchy is constructed, including the target layer, four criteria layers and 14 element layers. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and expert consultation are used to give corresponding weights to each index. According to the characteristics of the index, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established, and the decision support level of the system is determined according to the principle of maximum membership degree. Finally, according to the system evaluation results, the problems of the system are analyzed from the point of view of each index evaluation standard, and the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the forestry decision support system construction are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C829.2;F326.2

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