大国战略博弈的又一关键节点——特朗普政府南海战略展望

发布时间：2018-02-01 20:49

本文关键词： 特朗普政府声索国南海问题战略互动　出处：《人民论坛·学术前沿》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：美国新一届总统唐纳德·特朗普已经于2017年1月20日正式宣誓就职,美国从此进入了特朗普时代。特朗普如何与其他南海声索国如菲律宾、越南等及非声索国如新加坡等进行战略互动对南海局势影响颇大。在特朗普主政之后的未来四年之中,围绕南海问题,中美之间的关系是否会进一步紧张,是否会爆发海上冲突,很大程度上取决于白宫新主人的对华态度。美国特朗普政府对"亚太再平衡"战略的不屑以及越南、菲律宾在涉海问题上的微调并不等于南海从此会风平浪静,未来的影响仍不可低估。未来几年,非法仲裁案或会被美大加利用,美国被迫"单干"增大擦枪走火之风险,美拉拢其他域外势力介入南海的力度将空前增大。根据以上分析,中国应主动积极作为,在外交、经贸、人文等诸多方面采取行之有效的对策。
[Abstract]:The new President of the United States, Donald Trump, was officially sworn in on January 20th 2017, and the United States has entered the Trump era. How Trump can compete with other South China Sea powers like the Philippines. Strategic interactions between Vietnam and other non-vocal nations such as Singapore have had a significant impact on the situation in the South China Sea, where tensions between China and the United States will rise over the next four years after Trump took office. Much depends on the new White House master's attitude to China. The Trump administration's disdain for the "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" strategy and Vietnam's. The Philippines' fine-tuning on sea-related issues does not mean that the South China Sea will be calm from now on, and the future impact should not be underestimated. In the coming years, illegal arbitration cases may be greatly exploited by the United States. The United States will be forced to "go it alone" to increase the risk of gun fire, and the United States will increase its efforts to engage other extraterritorial forces in the South China Sea.According to the above analysis, China should take the initiative to act actively in diplomacy, economy and trade. Humanities and many other aspects to take effective countermeasures.
【作者单位】：解放军国际关系学院东南亚研究中心;
【分类号】：D871.2
【正文快照】： 在奥巴马政府着力打造的“亚太再平衡”战略中,南海声索国及我国周边国家一向是其重要的战略支点。其中,依靠、利用与菲律宾、越南、马来西亚以及印尼等声索国的战略互动进行布局以遏制中国是奥巴马时期围绕南海问题的主要套路。不同的是,在美国新总统特朗普走马上任之前,南海

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