水库大坝的防恐安全风险评价

发布时间：2018-02-02 11:07

本文关键词： 层次分析法安全风险评价水库大坝恐怖袭击　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水库大坝作为国家基础设施,因其目标明显、保护难度大、破坏后果严重,易成为恐怖分子或不法分子袭击的对象。因此,开展水库大坝的防恐安全风险评价方法研究,分析存在的安全风险因素,提出系统的安全评价方法,可防止水库大坝的安全破坏事件发生。层次分析法是一种定量与定性相结合,将人的主观判断用数学的形式表达和处理的方法,其关键是在于以一定的标度把人的主观感觉数量化。层次分析最关键的是建立层次结构分析模型。层次结构分析模型是问题被概化后的各个概念之间的逻辑关系。目标层为水库大坝安全风险等级,作为系统要评价的总目标,是本文要分析的主要问题。中间层即子准则层,包括水库大坝概况、恐怖袭击相关因素及溃坝后果,它们是作为影响水库大坝安全风险等级的重要因素。第三层即具体评价指标,即水库大坝概况、恐怖袭击相关因素及溃坝后果的具体包含因素细化。根据水库大坝防恐安全风险等级排序层次结构和安全风险评价方法,建立层次结构构造矩阵,得出权重：生命损失自身防御能力社会与环境影响受袭必要性经济损失结构破坏方式位置功能。评价水库大坝防恐的安全风险评价可邀请若干名同行专家进行,由课题组提供充分、详实的资料,并对整个水库大坝的概况,恐怖袭击相关因素以及溃坝后果进行综合汇报,有评议专家根据统一的验收评议表进行打分,将分值分别与权重值相乘,再乘以扩大系数,得出大坝总的评议分值。以陕西省西安地区石砭峪水库为例,运用基于AHP的大坝防恐安全风险评价方法,得到石砭峪水库属于中风险等级水库。结果较符合实际,证实了水库大坝防恐安全风险评价方法是可行的。与传统的评价方法相比,层次分析法更适用于对无结构特性的系统评价以及多目标、多准则、多时期等的系统评价。该方法可以更好的将专家知识集成到决策过程中,从而更加实际和更有灵活性。
[Abstract]:As the national infrastructure, the reservoir dam is easy to be attacked by terrorists or lawbreakers because of its obvious target, difficult protection and serious damage consequences. The method of safety risk assessment of reservoir dam is studied, the existing safety risk factors are analyzed, and the systematic safety evaluation method is put forward, which can prevent the safety damage of reservoir dam. The Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a method that combines quantitative and qualitative analysis to express and deal with human subjective judgment in mathematical form. The key is to quantify people's subjective feelings with a certain scale. The most important part of AHP is to establish a hierarchical analysis model, which is the logical relationship between the concepts after the problem has been generalized. . The target layer is the reservoir dam safety risk grade, which is the main problem to be analyzed in this paper. The intermediate layer is the sub-criterion layer, which includes the reservoir dam profile, the related factors of terrorist attack and the consequence of dam break, which are the important factors that affect the safety risk grade of reservoir dam. The third layer is the concrete evaluation index, that is, the general situation of the reservoir dam, the factors related to the terrorist attack and the concrete inclusion factors of the dam-break consequences. According to the hierarchy structure of safety risk grade and the method of safety risk evaluation, the hierarchy structure construction matrix is established. The weight: life loss ability, social and environmental influence, economic loss, economic loss, structural damage, location and function. Several experts may be invited to evaluate the safety risk of reservoir dam prevention. The project group provides sufficient and detailed information and gives a general survey of the dam. Terrorist attacks related factors and dam failure consequences of comprehensive reporting, some experts according to the unified acceptance evaluation form to score, will be divided into the weight value multiplied by the expansion factor. The total evaluation value of the dam is obtained. Taking Shibianyu Reservoir in Xi'an area of Shaanxi Province as an example, using the method of dam safety risk evaluation based on AHP, it is concluded that Shibianyu reservoir belongs to middle risk grade reservoir. The results are in good agreement with reality. It is proved that the method of reservoir dam safety risk assessment is feasible. Compared with the traditional evaluation method, AHP is more suitable for the systematic evaluation of unstructured characteristics and multi-objective and multi-criteria. This method can better integrate expert knowledge into the decision-making process, so it is more practical and flexible.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D815.5;TV64

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