政治人口学视角下“青年膨胀”与中国公共外交战略探究

发布时间：2018-02-02 19:58

本文关键词： 青年膨胀政治人口学公共外交国家安全　出处：《北京外国语大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】："青年膨胀"(Youth Bulge)指的是全球100多个国家,尤其是中东北非和东南亚地区正在发生的青年人口激增与失业现象。"青年膨胀"理论最早由德国不莱梅大学的社会学家贡纳尔·海因松(Gunnar Heinsohn)于20世纪90年代提出。海因松指出,1500年后欧洲帝国扩张的原因之一正是男性"青年膨胀"的结果,并认为如果一国15-29岁的人口超过总人口的30%,一定会出现社会冲突乃至暴力。2011年,突尼斯青年自焚引爆"阿拉伯之春"后,关于"青年膨胀"的研究开始引起学界重视。全球"青年膨胀"作为政治人口学的概念,对国家安全影响很大。那么,如何从政治人口学的角度理解"青年膨胀"的产生与发展?如何理解其对国家安全的影响?在这一背景下,中国外交战略选择应做出哪些调整?这些问题具有研究的现实意义和学术价值。本文以"青年膨胀"的现象和理论为对象,通过定性分析、案例研究等方法,对上述问题做出回应。全文共分六个部分。前言对"青年膨胀"的有关概念进行阐述,对问题提出、研究方法、现有文献和论文框架等方面进行了介绍。第一章对全球"青年膨胀"的现实图景进行了宏观勾勒,明确了"青年膨胀"的人口学现状及其导致的全球性问题,指出"青年膨胀"主要发生在亚非拉发展中国家,对现有国际体系造成冲击,导致过度政治参与、政治暴力和发展权等问题。第二章梳理阐述了"青年膨胀"的政治人口学基础,指出"青年膨胀"与政治暴力、国家安全之间的关联,从理论层面阐释了"青年膨胀"导致政治暴力和安全困境的原因。第三章指出"青年膨胀"与公共外交的理论联系,对公共外交理论和实践进行阐释,厘清以及以之为手段应对"青年膨胀"的理论依据,明确建立公共外交国际交流机制、提高政治制度化水平是决定"青年膨胀"正向效果的关键。并介绍了美国、英国、日本等国开展青年公共外交计划的案例,从实践层面验证了实施公共外交战略应对"青年膨胀"的可行性。第四章对中国外交的现状困境进行了阐述,并在总结理论和实践的基础上,提出中国实施青年公共外交战略的可能路径与建议。最后,结语部分总结指出应对"青年膨胀"威胁国家安全的主要手段之一就是制定相应的青年公共外交战略,通过建立青年公共外交机制、提高制度化水平,疏解"青年膨胀"对相应国家、地区乃至国际体系造成的系统压力,尤其要重视引导中东北非和东南亚等地区国家的青年人群,根本着眼点在于维护我国的国家利益与安全。
[Abstract]:"Youth bulge" refers to more than 100 countries around the world. Especially in the Middle East, North Africa and Southeast Asia, where the youth population is soaring and unemployment. The theory of "youth inflation" was first put forward by Gunnar HeRumayhn, a sociologist at the University of Bremen in Germany, in 1990s. Heinson pointed out that one of the reasons for the expansion of European empires after 1500 was the result of male youth expansion. And believes that if the population of a country aged 15-29 exceeds 30 percent of the total population, there will definitely be social conflicts and even violence. In 2011, after the Tunisian youth set themselves on fire and ignited the Arab Spring, The study of "youth inflation" is beginning to attract the attention of academic circles. As a concept of political demography, the global "youth inflation" has a great impact on national security. How to understand the emergence and development of "youth inflation" from the perspective of political demography? How to understand its impact on national security? Against this background, what adjustments should be made to China's diplomatic strategic choices? These problems have practical significance and academic value. This paper takes the phenomenon and theory of "youth inflation" as the object, through qualitative analysis, case study and other methods, This paper is divided into six parts. The preface expounds the concept of "youth inflation", puts forward the problem, and studies the method. The first chapter gives a macro picture of the global "youth inflation", and clarifies the demographic status of "youth inflation" and the global problems caused by "youth inflation". Pointing out that "youth inflation" mainly occurs in the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, causing an impact on the existing international system and resulting in excessive political participation, Chapter two discusses the basis of political demography of "youth inflation", and points out the connection between "youth expansion" and political violence, national security, etc. The third chapter points out the theoretical connection between "youth inflation" and public diplomacy, and explains the theory and practice of public diplomacy. Clarifying the theoretical basis of dealing with "youth inflation", establishing the international exchange mechanism of public diplomacy and raising the level of political institutionalization are the key to determine the positive effect of "youth inflation". The case of Japan and other countries carrying out the youth public diplomacy plan proves the feasibility of carrying out the public diplomacy strategy to deal with "youth expansion" from the practical aspect. Chapter 4th expounds the current situation and predicament of China's diplomacy. On the basis of summing up the theory and practice, this paper puts forward the possible paths and suggestions for China to implement the strategy of youth public diplomacy. The conclusion concludes that one of the main ways to deal with the threat of "youth inflation" is to formulate the corresponding youth public diplomacy strategy, and to raise the level of institutionalization through the establishment of youth public diplomacy mechanism. To relieve the systematic pressure caused by "youth inflation" to the corresponding countries, regions and even the international system, especially to guide the young people in the Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia and other countries, the fundamental focus is to safeguard the national interests and security of our country.
【学位授予单位】：北京外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D820

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