美国对华战略逻辑的演进与“特朗普冲击”

发布时间：2018-02-14 11:15

本文关键词： 美国对华战略接触战略中美关系特朗普　出处：《世界经济与政治》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：特朗普当选总统,给美国未来对华战略带来了较强的不确定性,其种种涉华言行似乎体现出强烈的"非传统"色彩。然而回看冷战结束以来的历史,伴随中美两国在国际体系内的相对位置从"内外—强弱"关系转变为"体系内两强"关系,美国对华战略实际上始终沿着一条内在逻辑连贯的主线在发展、演变,其核心思想从"接触"演进到"接触+防范",再到"接触+规制"。总体而言,美国对华战略中消极成分的比重逐渐扩大,而中美关系不断发展的内生因素又给美国对华战略提供了"托底"的力量。特朗普迄今在对华政策上的言行符合这一长期战略逻辑演进的主线,是美国对华战略逐步调整、演进过程中的一次最新尝试。这次调整可能以美方定义的"互惠"为目标,带有特朗普所热衷的"交易"特色。特朗普团队内部各派力量的消长,将决定其未来对华战略的层次是聚焦"美国优先",还是回归共和党传统的大国博弈层面。中美两国的互动情况,则将塑造其对华战略的方向是朝向合作还是冲突。
[Abstract]:Trump's election as president has brought greater uncertainty to the future strategy of the United States towards China, and its various words and deeds concerning China seem to reflect a strong "non-traditional" color. However, looking back at the history since the end of the Cold War, With the relative position of China and the United States in the international system changing from "internal and external, strong or weak" relations to "two powerful powers within the system", the US strategy towards China has in fact been developing and evolving along a coherent line of internal logic. Its core thoughts have evolved from "contact" to "contact prevention" and to "contact regulation". In general, the proportion of negative elements in the United States' strategy towards China has gradually expanded. However, the endogenetic factors of the continuous development of Sino-US relations have provided a "backing" force for the United States' China strategy. The words and deeds of Trump in his China policy up to now accord with the main line of this long-term strategic logic evolution, and it is the gradual adjustment of the United States' strategy towards China. The latest attempt in the evolution. The adjustment may target what the United States defines as "reciprocity," with the "trading" feature that Trump is keen on. The rise and fall of forces within the Trump team, Whether the level of its future strategy towards China will focus on "America first" or return to the Republican Party's traditional great power game, the interaction between China and the United States will shape the direction of its strategy towards China towards cooperation or conflict.
【作者单位】：中国现代国际关系研究院美国研究所;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地基金资助,是“中美新型大国关系的操作化研究”项目(批准号:15JJD810008)的研究成果
【分类号】：D822.371.2

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