美国智库关于中国和平发展的争论与对美国对华政策的影响

发布时间：2018-02-16 11:56

本文关键词： 美国智库和平发展接触派未定论派遏制派对华政策　出处：《兰州大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着中国综合国力的全面提升,崛起的中国已经成为世界范围内最热门的话题,而如何应对中国的崛起已经引起了国际社会广泛而持久的争论。面对他们的这些质疑,胡锦涛总书记早在2003年就提出要坚持走和平崛起的发展道路,随后中国政府又在2011年9月6日发表了《中国和平发展》白皮书,表明中国正式将和平发展战略纳入国家战略之中。但是,中国的崛起是否能走上和平发展的道路,美国智库中又形成了不同派别的争论与不同角度的分析：这些分析既有基于实力层面的,又有基于意图层面的,既有立足于事实的,也有立足于国际关系理论的。因此,本文从美国智库对中国与中美关系的见解与立场出发,梳理了美国智库中关于中国和平发展的三种主流意见,分别是相信中国可以实现和平崛起并主张美国应尽量与中国保持接触与合作的“接触派”,对中国能否驾驭自身的发展道路抱有怀疑态度的“未定论派”和强调中美之间矛盾不合调和并主张对华实行遏制政策的“遏制派”。美国智库专家的立场与角度不同,得出的结论也迥异。因此,本文主要从两大方面总结了美国智库中三派的观点：一是从三派对中国和平发展的实力因素进行分析,总结了他们对中国发展过程中的实力因素是否可以支撑和平发展总目标实现的考量与判断；二是从三派对中国和平发展战略意图的评判出发,总结了美国智库对中国和平发展战略意图真实可靠性的判断与主要依据。最后,本文分析了美国智库关于中国和平发展的争论对美国对华政策的影响。前一部分总结了美国智库在美国政府对外政策中的功能和作用,以及美国智库是如何影响美国政府对外政策。最后得出结论：智库能够对美国对外决策机制产生重要影响。后一部分主要以布什政府和奥巴马政府的对华政策作为案例分析,通过挖掘智库对华思想与美国对华政策的相关性,从智库三派的对华观点与美国对华政策在不同时期的表现与特点方面证明,智库思想对美国政府产生影响具有必然性。本文通过收集美国智库对中国和平发展的数据分析与理论依据,首先是要从这些论据中梳理出形成美国智库三大派别的不同观点及主要原因。其次,探析这三派的观点对美国对华政策的影响。最后得出结论：美国智库对中国和平发展的争论的确影响了美国政府的对华政策,同时,这种相关性启迪我们研究智库思想是研究美国外交政策的一个重要途径。通过对智库思想的研究,可以为我们观察美国对华政策打开一扇新的窗户,提供一种解读中美关系的新视角。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the overall improvement of China's overall national strength, a rising China has become the most popular topic in the world, and how to deal with China's rise has aroused extensive and long-lasting debates in the international community. Facing these questions, General Secretary Hu Jintao put forward as early as 2003 that he should stick to the road of peaceful rise of development.After that, the Chinese Government issued a white paper on "China's peaceful Development" on September 6th 2011. It shows that China has formally incorporated the peaceful development strategy into its national strategy. However, will China's rise be able to embark on the path of peaceful development? In the American think-tank, different factions have been debated and analyzed from different angles: these analyses are based on strength level, intention level, facts and international relations theory. Based on the views and positions of American think-tanks on China-US relations, this paper reviews the three mainstream views of American think-tanks on China's peaceful development. They are the "contacts" who believe that China can achieve its peaceful rise and advocate that the United States should maintain contact and cooperation with China as far as possible, and are sceptical about China's ability to steer its own development path and emphasize China. The contradiction between the United States and the United States to reconcile and advocate the policy of containment of China, the "containment school." The positions and angles of American think-tank experts are different, and their conclusions are also very different. Therefore, this paper mainly summarizes the views of the three schools of American think-tanks from two major aspects: one is to analyze the strength factors of the peaceful development of China from the three parties. It summarizes their consideration and judgment on whether the factors of strength in the process of China's development can support the realization of the overall goal of peaceful development. Second, they judge the strategic intention of China's peaceful development from the perspective of "three parties". This paper summarizes the judgment and main basis of American think-tank on the true reliability of China's strategic intention for peaceful development. Finally, this paper analyzes the impact of the debate on the peaceful development of China by American think-tanks on the US policy towards China. The first part summarizes the functions and functions of US think-tanks in the foreign policy of the US government. And how the US think-tank affects the US government's foreign policy. Finally, it concludes that the think-tank can have an important impact on the US foreign decision-making mechanism. The latter part mainly takes the China policy of the Bush administration and the Obama administration as a case study. By exploring the correlation between the thinking of think tanks on China and the policy of the United States towards China, it is proved that the influence of the thought of think tanks on the United States Government is inevitable from the perspectives of the three schools of think-tanks on China and the performance and characteristics of the American policy on China in different periods. By collecting the data analysis and theoretical basis of American think-tanks on China's peaceful development, the first is to sort out the different viewpoints and main reasons for the formation of the three major schools of American think-tanks from these arguments. Secondly, An analysis of the impact of the views of these three schools on the United States' China policy. Finally, it is concluded that the controversy over the peaceful development of China by the US think-tank has indeed affected the US Government's China policy, and at the same time, This correlation inspires us to study the thinking of think tanks is an important way to study US foreign policy. By studying the thinking of think tanks, we can open a new window for us to observe the United States' China policy. It provides a new angle of view to interpret the relationship between China and the United States.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：D822.3;D871.2

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