特朗普“去气候化”政策对全球气候治理的影响

发布时间：2018-03-01 10:31

本文关键词： 全球气候治理特朗普政府巴黎协定国家自主贡献　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：美国特朗普政府宣布退出《巴黎协定》是当前全球气候治理中最受舆论关注的问题,对事态发展趋势的判断和事件影响的评估是最为亟需的。本文系统分析了特朗普政府上任后推行的一系列"去气候化"政策,以及其退出《巴黎协定》的主要动因和可能形式,同时量化评估了这些内政外交的"倒退"对美国实施国家自主贡献目标以及全球气候治理格局的实质影响,并据此提出了中国应对全球气候治理新形势变化的对策和建议。研究表明,特朗普政府"美国优先"的能源政策根植于复兴制造业和加大基础设施投资的经济利益动机,随着特朗普"去气候化"进程持续发酵,诸多气候政策面临存续风险,美国实施国家自主贡献将面临严峻挑战,"倒行政策"将有可能使美国温室气体排放出现反弹。如果不考虑中、高危气候政策,美国2025年温室气体排放也仅能相对2005年下降11.0%—14.9%,距离下降26%—28%的国家自主贡献目标相去甚远。同时,特朗普政府拒绝继续履行向发展中国家提供气候资金支持的义务,将有可能导致绿色气候基金拖欠资金总额上升117%,并进一步挫伤全球低碳投资的信心。没有美国的全球气候治理3.0时代将呈现出新的复杂特征,并不可避免地造成减排、资金和领导力缺口的持续扩大,也不排除后续会出现消极的跟随者,整体进程将可能进入一个低潮周期。虽然国际社会对中国引领全球气候治理充满期待,但中国仍应审慎对待,长远谋划应对气候变化的内政外交战略,而不应将"气候举旗"看作是一蹴而就的短期策略,对各种要求中国发挥"领导作用"的说法保持清醒头脑。在今后气候谈判中,美国仍有较大可能会二次"要价",中国作为排放大国的压力依然不容小觑,中美气候关系需要再定位。
[Abstract]:The announcement by the Trump administration of the United States to withdraw from the Paris Agreement is the most topical issue in current global climate governance. Judging the trend of events and assessing the impact of events are most urgently needed. This paper systematically analyzes a series of "de-climate" policies pursued by the Trump administration after taking office, as well as the main reasons and possible forms of its withdrawal from the Paris Accord. At the same time, it quantitatively assesses the substantial impact of these "setbacks" in domestic and foreign affairs on the implementation of the goals of national ownership by the United States and on the global climate governance landscape, Based on this, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for China to cope with the changes in the new situation of global climate governance. The research shows that the Trump administration's "US priority" energy policy is rooted in the economic interest motive of reviving manufacturing and increasing infrastructure investment. As Trump's "de-climate" process continues to ferment, many climate policies are at risk for survival. The implementation of national ownership by the United States will face serious challenges, and the "reverse policy" could lead to a rebound in greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. On 2025, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions fell only 11.0-14.9 from 2005, far from the goal of a 26 to 28 percent decline in national independent contributions. At the same time, the Trump administration refused to continue to meet its obligation to provide climate finance support to developing countries. This could lead to an increase in the total amount of arrears in the Green Climate Fund and further dampen confidence in global low-carbon investment. The 3.0 era of global climate governance without the United States will take on new and complex features and inevitably result in emissions reductions, The continued widening of the funding and leadership gap does not preclude a negative follower in the follow-up, and the overall process could enter a low tide cycle. Although the international community is hopeful that China will lead global climate governance, However, China should still be cautious and plan its domestic and diplomatic strategy to tackle climate change in the long run, rather than viewing "climate flag raising" as a short-term strategy that can be achieved overnight. Keep a clear mind over all kinds of claims that China should play a "leading role". In future climate negotiations, the United States is still more likely to "ask for a price" twice, and the pressure on China as a major emitter is still not to be underestimated. The climate relationship between China and the United States needs to be reoriented.
【作者单位】：国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心;清华大学现代管理研究中心;
【基金】：中国清洁发展机制基金项目“主要缔约方2015协议下自主贡献的公平性和力度评估”(批准号:2014094)、“中美气候变化务实合作技术支撑项目”(批准号:2013019) 科技部改革发展专项研发项目“INDC及其全球盘点机制的影响及对策研究”之“巴黎会议后应对气候变化急迫重大问题研究”(批准号:YJ201603)
【分类号】：D815;P467

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