“一带一路”建设在中亚地区的风险评估

发布时间：2018-03-11 12:18

本文选题：“一带一路”　切入点：中亚　出处：《新疆师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“一带一路”建设的提出,将对世界及亚洲格局的改变产生深刻的影响,也将对我国的周边外交产生巨大的改变。时至今日,中国与“一带一路”建设沿线国家已在多领域间开展切实合作,周边国家的作用因此不断凸显,中亚国家作为联通欧亚大陆的重要枢纽,更是显得尤为重要。尽管中亚国家纷纷展露参与的热情,但中亚地区形势复杂,前行之路并非一片坦途。“一带一路”建设在中亚国家的实施面临着内外交困的潜在风险,这些风险会对战略实施形成阻碍,因此“一带一路”建设在中亚国家的实施风险值得引起高度关注,同时中亚国家在政治、经济、外交文化等方面的差异也使得“一带一路”建设在中亚地区的风险评估成为战略实施的重要前提。本文拟在新的全球政治经济语境下,以“一带一路”建设在中亚地区的风险作为主要研究对象,分析这些风险对中国国家利益的影响,探寻中国化解“一带一路”建设在中亚地区的困局和风险的方略。据此,本文的研究主要分为五个部分:第一部分为导论,简要地介绍了研究的选题背景、研究思路、研究现状以及创新和不足。第二部分阐述“一带一路”建设对地缘政治经济战略重构的背景,揭示其本质以及在中亚地区产生的影响。第三部分着重分析“一带一路”建设在中亚地区的综合实施环境,包括各大国在中亚地区的博弈态势以及中亚国家的反应意愿。第四部分识别了当前影响“一带一路”建设在中亚地区的实施风险因素,并在此基础上利用层次分析法将“一带一路”建设在中亚地区的推进风险进行量化评估,根据项目风险的评估结果评定“一带一路”建设在中亚地区的实施风险等级。第五部分针对风险评估结果提出在战略层面、机制层面、外交层面、文化层面的化解策略。当前,中亚地区形势尚好,但隐患仍存。因此我国“一带一路”建设的推进需要注重前期的研究与评估,加大战略性的顶层设计,努力规避风险,才能更好地推进“一带一路”建设。
[Abstract]:The proposal of the construction of "Belt and Road" will have a profound impact on the changes in the world and the Asian structure, and will also have a tremendous change in China's peripheral diplomacy. To this day, China and the countries along the construction line of "Belt and Road" have carried out practical cooperation in various fields, and the role of the neighboring countries has been constantly highlighted. The Central Asian countries serve as an important hub for connecting the Eurasian continent. It is even more important. Although Central Asian countries have shown their enthusiasm for participation, the situation in Central Asia is complex and the road ahead is not a smooth one. The implementation of "Belt and Road" in Central Asian countries faces the potential risks of internal and diplomatic difficulties. These risks will hinder the implementation of the strategy. Therefore, the implementation risks of "Belt and Road" construction in the Central Asian countries deserve high attention. At the same time, the Central Asian countries are politically and economically. The differences in diplomatic culture also make the risk assessment of Belt and Road's construction in Central Asia an important prerequisite for the implementation of the strategy. Taking the risks of "Belt and Road" construction in Central Asia as the main research object, this paper analyzes the influence of these risks on the national interests of China, and explores the strategies for China to resolve the difficulties and risks of the construction of "Belt and Road" in Central Asia. The research of this paper is divided into five parts: the first part is the introduction, which briefly introduces the background of the research topic, the research ideas, The second part expounds the background of "Belt and Road" construction to the strategic reconstruction of geopolitical economy. The third part focuses on the analysis of the comprehensive implementation environment built by Belt and Road in Central Asia. Including the game situation of the major powers in the Central Asian region and the willingness of the Central Asian countries to respond. Part 4th identifies the risk factors that affect the implementation of "Belt and Road" construction in the Central Asian region. On the basis of this, the risk of "Belt and Road" construction in Central Asia is evaluated quantitatively by using the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). According to the results of project risk assessment, the implementation risk grade of "Belt and Road" construction in Central Asia is evaluated. Part 5th puts forward the solution strategies at the strategic level, mechanism level, diplomatic level and cultural level in view of the risk assessment results. The situation in Central Asia is still good, but the hidden danger still exists. Therefore, the construction of Belt and Road in China needs to pay attention to the previous research and evaluation, increase the strategic top-level design, and make efforts to avoid risks, so as to better promote the construction of "Belt and Road".
【学位授予单位】：新疆师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D822;F125

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