核危机背景下的中伊关系发展研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 09:33

本文选题：伊朗核问题　切入点：中伊关系　出处：《西南大学》2011年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国与伊朗在政治、经济、文化方面都有着悠久的交往历史。新中国成立之前,中伊两国进行着断断续续的交往；新中国成立之初,伊朗奉行亲美反华政策,中伊关系始终未能取得突破性发展；直到20世纪60年代后期,国际形势发生巨变,中伊关系开始“破冰”,并于1971年8月16日建立外交关系；中国改革开放之后,中伊关系继续向前发展并经历了霍梅尼阶段和哈梅内伊阶段。2003年以来,伊朗核问题浮出水面,中伊关系发展将存在更多变数。中伊关系发展受到多方面因素的影响,既有国家利益、地缘政治、大国、国际形势和国际环境、历史宗教文化等因素的影响,也有中伊两国对外战略差异因素的影响,还受到中伊发展方式和阶段目标的差异和其他特殊性与不确定因素的制约。其中,伊朗核问题的走向将对当前中伊关系的发展产生极其重要的影响。其实,在美国等西方国家的帮助下,伊朗于20世纪50年代开核研究。但是,2003年以来,伊朗的核计划变成了世界关注的核“问题”。伊朗核问题的实质是美国与伊朗关系长期敌对的结果,是美伊关系问题,但是起着动摇中国-美国-伊朗“三角”关系稳定的作用。如果美国坚决反对伊朗拥核、伊朗决心成为核国家的局面对峙下去,中-美-伊关系的“三角”将不再稳定,那时伊朗不会只把“机遇”给予中国,还将让中国面临更艰难的抉择和更严峻的挑战,这是正在出现、中国应当努力避免的局面。从近期看,受到种种因素制约,美国暂时不会因核问题对伊朗动武,将继续向伊朗施加压力、迫使伊朗就范。但从长远看,美伊之间这种威胁与反威胁、制裁与反制裁的“游戏”不可能无限期的“玩下去”,伊朗核问题终归要解决。而和平谈判解决伊核问题的前景不甚乐观,最终美伊双方将因核问题兵戎相见,这只是时间问题。中国从国家利益出发,应制定近期和远期对伊朗战略。在近期,中国在高度关注、积极应对伊核问题的现实发展的同时,还应该从全球、中-美-伊关系“三角”的层面做好应对之策,力保中伊关系持续发展。在远期,中国应该未雨绸缪,降低对伊朗能源的依赖性,增加能源进口渠道；即使美伊爆发战争,中国仍然应该重点发展对美关系；同时,在战争爆发的情况下,中国应该采取措施使其在伊朗乃至中东的利益损失减少到最低。
[Abstract]:China and Iran have a long history of political, economic and cultural exchanges. Before the founding of New China, China and Iran engaged in intermittent exchanges; at the beginning of the founding of New China, Iran pursued a pro-US anti-China policy. Sino-Iranian relations have never made a breakthrough; until the late 1960s, when the international situation changed dramatically, Sino-Iranian relations began to "break the ice," and diplomatic relations were established in August 16th 1971. After China's reform and opening up, Since 2003, the Iranian nuclear issue has surfaced, and there will be more variables in the development of Sino-Iranian relations. The development of Sino-Iranian relations is influenced by many factors, including national interests, geopolitics, great powers, international situation and international environment, historical, religious and cultural factors, as well as the factors of the differences between the two countries' foreign strategies. It is also restricted by the differences in the development mode and stage goals of China and Iraq and other particularities and uncertainties, among which, the trend of the Iranian nuclear issue will have an extremely important impact on the development of the current Sino-Iranian relations. In fact, with the help of the United States and other Western countries, Iran opened nuclear research on 1950s. However, since 2003, Iran's nuclear program has become a nuclear "problem" of concern to the world. The essence of the Iranian nuclear issue is the result of a long period of hostility between the United States and Iran, as well as the issue of US-Iran relations. But it has the effect of destabilizing the "triangle" relationship between China, the United States and Iran. If the United States resolutely opposes Iran's nuclear support and Iran is determined to remain a nuclear power, the "triangle" of China-U.S.-Iran relations will no longer be stable. At that time, Iran will not only give China "opportunities", but will also make China face more difficult choices and more serious challenges, which is emerging and China should try to avoid the situation. In the near term, under various constraints, the United States will not use force against Iran for the time being over the nuclear issue, and will continue to exert pressure on Iran to force Iran to submit. But in the long run, this kind of threat and counter-threat between the United States and Iraq, Sanctions and anti-sanctions "games" cannot be played indefinitely, and the Iranian nuclear issue will eventually be resolved. The prospects for a peaceful settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue are not very optimistic. Finally, the United States and Iraq will meet over the nuclear issue, which is only a matter of time. Proceeding from the national interest, China should formulate a strategy for Iran in the near and long term. In the near future, while paying close attention to and actively responding to the actual development of the Iranian nuclear issue, China should also start from the global perspective. In the long run, China should be prepared to reduce its dependence on Iran's energy and increase its energy import channels; even if a war breaks out between the United States and Iraq, China should still focus on developing relations with the United States, and in the event of a war, it should take measures to minimize its loss of interest in Iran and the Middle East.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D822.3

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