论美国中亚战略的确定性与不确定性

发布时间：2018-03-29 19:47

本文选题：美国　切入点：中亚　出处：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2010年博士论文

【摘要】： 美国中亚战略既存在比较明显的确定性,同时也存在比较明显的不确定性。从宏观和总体看,冷战后美国的中亚战略经历了从不确定性到确定性的历程,呈现一种相对明显的“螺旋式”演进。美国的对外战略中,国家利益与价值关怀总是相互支持,总体以前者为主,但后者在一定时期内也会因总统价值观、美国安全战略进展等因素而有所突出。当然,最终是往往是现实主义和实用主义占据上风。美国中亚战略目标中始终把安全利益、地缘利益、能源利益等现实和“有形的国家利益”放在主要位置,予以优先考虑和满足,有关软实力和价值观等“无形的国家利益”推进则相对处于次要位置。美国基本的战略目标具有相似性与相对连续性,以确定性为主,不确定性为辅,美国中亚战略的基本路径也有相似性与协调性。但美国决策机制、总统个人倾向、中亚的大国博弈、国际形势变迁与美国实力变化等一系列内外制约因素,也给美国中亚战略带来许多不确定性,导致不同阶段内美国中亚战略表现出较多差异性、非连贯性乃至矛盾性。美国中亚战略带来多重后果,继而成为带来新不确定性的原因,制约美国中亚战略的进一步实施,不时使美国政府面临艰难抉择,促使政府不得不进行反思和改进。不同时期、不同的美国政府,其中亚战略体现着现实主义与理想主义的不同侧重及其带来的确定性与不确定性,以及实用主义外交本质带来的折中性。相对而言,美国中亚战略中的现实主义成分更多与确定性相契合,而其中的价值观外交、多边主义外交等理想主义色彩,则可能面临或导致更多的不确定性,使美国被迫或不断面临安全与民主孰轻孰重的艰难取舍,最终往往倾向现实主义或实用主义的天平。不能轻易判定不同政府的中亚战略是现实主义抑或理想主义,是确定性抑或不确定性,很多时候这种界定是相对的、动态的。
[Abstract]:The Central Asia strategy of the United States has not only obvious certainty, but also obvious uncertainty. From the macro and overall point of view, the post-Cold War Central Asia strategy of the United States has experienced a process from uncertainty to certainty. There is a relatively obvious "spiral" of evolution. In the United States' foreign strategy, national interests and value concerns always support each other. The former is the main concern in general, but the latter will also be due to the values of the President for a certain period of time. Of course, in the end, realism and pragmatism tend to prevail. In the strategic goal of the United States in Central Asia, security interests, geographical interests, The reality such as energy interests and "tangible national interests" are put in the main position and given priority and satisfaction, while the promotion of "invisible national interests" such as soft power and values is relatively secondary. The basic strategic objectives of the United States have similarity and relative continuity, with certainty as the main factor and uncertainty as the auxiliary, and the basic path of the United States' strategy for Central Asia is also similar and coordinated. However, the decision-making mechanism of the United States, the President's personal inclination, A series of internal and external restrictive factors, such as the game of great powers in Central Asia, the changes of international situation and the change of American strength, also bring a lot of uncertainty to the Central Asian strategy of the United States, which leads to the differences of American Central Asian strategy in different stages. Discontinuity and even contradiction. The American Central Asia strategy brings many consequences, and then becomes the cause of the new uncertainty. It restricts the further implementation of the American Central Asia strategy and makes the US government face difficult choices from time to time. The government had to rethink and improve. In different periods and different American governments, the sub-strategy embodies the different emphasis of realism and idealism and the certainty and uncertainty brought about by it, as well as the neutral nature of pragmatic diplomacy. The realism in the American strategy of Central Asia is more consistent with the certainty, and the idealism, such as value diplomacy, multilateralism and so on, may face or lead to more uncertainty. As a result, the United States is forced or constantly faced with a difficult choice between security and democracy, which often ends up in the balance of realism or pragmatism. It is not easy to judge whether the Central Asian strategy of different governments is realistic or idealistic. The definition of certainty or uncertainty is often relative and dynamic.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：D871.2

【引证文献】