谈判能力与联盟转型

发布时间：2018-04-13 19:47

本文选题：谈判能力 + 联盟转型　；参考：《世界经济与政治》2017年06期

【摘要】：现有国际关系理论指出,联盟成员共享安全利益的程度和联盟成员共享价值规范的程度是解释联盟类型的两个主要因素。现有理论讨论了产生不同联盟类型的主要因素,但并未讨论联盟转型成败的主要条件。在肯定现有理论解释力的基础上,本文提出,在不对称联盟中,强盟主对弱盟友的谈判能力是解释联盟转型成败的必要条件。强盟主对弱盟友的援助能力、干涉能力、补偿能力和损耗能力越强,联盟转型越容易成功;反之,联盟转型越容易失败。作者选择1936—1937年法国在东欧的联盟转型失败和1940—1941年德国在东欧的联盟转型成功作为检验理论的案例。依据英国、德国、意大利和苏联档案,检验和发展了一个关于不对称联盟转型成败的理论。近年来,美国在亚太地区的联盟有转型的可能性。美国对日本和韩国的援助能力较强,但美国对日本和韩国的干涉能力、补偿能力和损耗能力较弱。因此,美国成功实现亚太地区联盟转型的可能性不高。
[Abstract]:The current international relations theory points out that the degree of alliance members' sharing security benefits and the degree of alliance members' sharing value norms are the two main factors that explain the alliance type.The existing theories discuss the main factors that produce different types of alliances, but not the main conditions for the success or failure of alliance transformation.On the basis of affirming the existing theoretical explanatory power, this paper proposes that in asymmetric alliances, the negotiation ability of strong leaders to weak allies is a necessary condition to explain the success or failure of alliance transformation.The stronger the ability of aid, interference, compensation and loss of the weak allies, the easier it is to succeed in the transformation of the alliance, whereas, the easier it is to fail in the transformation of the alliance.The author chooses the failure of French alliance transformation in Eastern Europe from 1936 to 1937 and the success of German alliance transformation in Eastern Europe from 1940-1941 as a case study of the theory.According to the archives of Britain, Germany, Italy and the Soviet Union, a theory on the success or failure of the transformation of asymmetric alliances has been tested and developed.In recent years, the US alliance in the Asia-Pacific region has the potential to transform.U.S. aid to Japan and South Korea is stronger, but the U.S. ability to intervene in Japan and South Korea, compensation capacity and loss capacity is relatively weak.As a result, the possibility of a successful transformation of the Asia-Pacific alliance is low.
【作者单位】：清华大学国际关系学系;
【基金】：“清华大学引进人才启动经费”支持
【分类号】：D871.2

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