对冲逻辑与中美安全关系的策略性质——以南海互动为例

发布时间：2018-04-18 06:24

本文选题：对冲逻辑 + 中美安全关系　；参考：《新视野》2014年03期

【摘要】：对冲理论属于"斗而不破"传统策略的学理化表述,它为国家间安全互动分析提供了新的视角。该理论认为,相关国家为应对国际环境的不确定性,倾向于综合运用多样化措施,而非单向度的行为策略;突出特点是有意释放混合信号、避免被认为站在某一边,由此减少行为风险。中美安全关系的复杂性,主要源于两国以及第三方之间安全互动的策略性质,或"对冲成分"。南海争端作为典型事态,可以完整演绎各方对冲思路,得出相应政策启示。中国在处理外部安全关系时,应该将对冲策略作为常态化思路,逐渐从"以拖待变"转向"积极对冲",尝试以灵活方式、最小代价,实现最终目标。
[Abstract]:The theory of hedging belongs to the physicochemical expression of the traditional strategy of "fighting without breaking", which provides a new perspective for the analysis of interstate security interaction.The theory suggests that countries, in response to the uncertainty of the international environment, tend to employ a combination of diversification measures rather than one-way behavioural strategies; a prominent feature is the deliberate release of mixed signals to avoid being perceived as being on one side.This reduces the risk of behavior.The complexity of the security relationship stems mainly from the strategic nature, or "hedging element", of security interactions between the two countries and third parties.As a typical state of affairs, the South China Sea dispute can fully deduce the hedging ideas of all parties and draw corresponding policy implications.In dealing with external security relations, China should take hedging strategy as a normal way of thinking and gradually change from "waiting to change" to "active hedging", and try to achieve the ultimate goal in a flexible manner and at the minimum cost.
【作者单位】：北京大学国际关系学院;
【分类号】：D822.371.2

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