特朗普政府对外决策的确定性与不确定性

发布时间：2018-04-18 22:11

本文选题：特朗普政府 + 对外决策　；参考：《外交评论(外交学院学报)》2017年02期

【摘要】：美国特朗普政府的对外决策具有明显的确定性与不确定性。当前美国面临的国内外环境,决定特朗普政府对外政策以提振美国经济与就业为明确目标。"交易思维"、"军人情结"、"反建制派"倾向以及漫长的"学习周期"等可以确定的特朗普个人特质、偏好与局限性,为其核心决策小圈子复杂的内部生态以及决策不确定性创造了充分空间。面对确定性与不确定性交互影响下的特朗普政府外交决策,一方面未必要过早地对其具体政策路径选择作出必然性判断,另一方面也必须具有"底线思维",做好应对一切可能的充分准备。
[Abstract]:The US Trump administration has obvious certainty and uncertainty in its foreign decisions."the current domestic and foreign environment for the United States determines that the Trump administration's foreign policy has a clear goal of boosting the U.S. economy and jobs.""Trade thinking," "military complex," "anti-establishment" tendencies and the long "learning cycle" can be identified as Trump's personal characteristics, preferences and limitations,It creates sufficient space for the complex inner ecology and uncertainty of the core decision making circle.In the face of the interaction of certainty and uncertainty, on the one hand, the Trump administration does not necessarily have to prematurely judge the choice of its specific policy path.On the other hand, must have a "bottom-line thinking", ready to deal with all possible adequate preparation.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院美国研究所;
【分类号】：D871.2

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