大国权力竞争方式的两种演化路径——基于春秋体系和二战后体系的比较研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 06:40

本文选题：春秋体系 + 二战后体系　；参考：《当代亚太》2014年05期

【摘要】：文章研究了两个相关联的问题:第一,同样处于无政府状态,为什么在春秋初期和二战后初期的国际体系都出现了明显的大国主动利他的行为?第二,为什么二战后初期出现的剩他行为得以延续并被逐渐巩固,而春秋初期出现的利他行为却未能延续,反而逐渐退化为一个彻底的霍布斯式的自然状态?文章通过理论模型和案例比较显示,在特定条件下,即使处于无政府状态,追求权力的大国也会主动采取具有利他效应的利益交换战略。导致这种权力竞争方式出现的最关键的条件是体系中存在抑制大国剥夺小国自主性的社会规范。不过,受具体体系环境的约束,即使所有条件都满足并且使得利益交换战略成为大国权力竞争的占优战略,也并不意味着这种良性的权力竞争局面一定能够持续下去。当大国对小国施加武力胁迫的成本越小,而武力胁迫战略给竞争对手带来的收益越大时,以利益交换为主流权力竞争战略的良性竞争模式就越有可能被以武力胁迫为主流权力竞争战略的恶性竞争模式所取代。
[Abstract]:This paper studies two interrelated questions: first, the same anarchy, why did the international system in the early Spring and Autumn period and the early period after World War II appear the obvious behavior of great power active altruism? Second, why did the remaining other behavior that appeared in the early stage of World War II continue and be gradually consolidated, but the altruistic behavior that appeared in the early Spring and Autumn period was gradually degenerated into a completely Hobbesian state of nature instead of continuing? Through theoretical model and case comparison, the paper shows that under certain conditions, even in anarchic state, the power seeking big country will take the initiative to adopt the altruistic interest exchange strategy. The most important condition leading to the emergence of this power competition is the existence of social norms in the system which restrain the large countries from depriving the small countries of their autonomy. However, restricted by the specific system environment, even if all the conditions are satisfied and the interest exchange strategy becomes the dominant strategy of power competition of big countries, it does not mean that this benign situation of power competition can be sustained. The smaller the cost of coercion by a large country against a small country, and the greater the benefits to its competitors of a strategy of coercion, It is more likely that the benign competition model with the exchange of interests as the mainstream power competition strategy will be replaced by the vicious competition model with force coercion as the mainstream power competition strategy.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;
【分类号】：D81

【参考文献】