“一带一路”视野下南亚地缘政治格局及地区形势发展观察

发布时间：2018-04-24 17:11

本文选题：“一带一路” + 南亚　；参考：《南亚研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：多年来,南亚地缘政治演绎中所呈现的"一家独大"的力量格局、醒目的区域裂痕、积重难返的安全问题、相对低效的地区机制,以及错综复杂的大国捭阖博弈局面等基本特征,总体上在延续发展,显示出历史的惯性;迄今,南亚地缘政治格局并未发生质变。不过,近期地区形势发展中的确有一些值得引起重视的新动向。首先,地区权力结构不对称性加剧,"印度中心"特征趋于强化,而巴基斯坦的南亚战略处境略趋于不利;其次,地区安全形势中三大痼疾持续发酵、两种安全互为交织,尤其印巴相互威慑的烈度呈现上升势头,而区域内外战略互动中带有对抗性博弈的内容趋于增多;此外,地区国家同域外大国的战略关系有不同发展演变,尤其是印美靠近而中印关系下滑所塑造出的中美印战略三角扁平化趋势,值得中国警惕。未来中国的南亚政策,需要尊重现实,不可抱"中印大同"的天真幻想,也不可持"合小攻大"的进攻性现实主义立场,而应该选择"合小稳大"的务实战略取向。
[Abstract]:Over the years, the "one family alone" power pattern presented in the geopolitical interpretation of South Asia, the striking regional rift, the long-term accumulation of security problems that are not easy to solve, and the relatively inefficient regional mechanism, As well as the complicated situation of great powers maneuvering game and other basic characteristics, the overall continuation of development, showing the inertia of history; so far, the geopolitical pattern in South Asia has not changed qualitatively. However, recent regional developments do have some new trends that deserve attention. First, the asymmetry of the regional power structure intensifies, the characteristic of "India center" tends to strengthen, while the strategic situation in South Asia of Pakistan tends to be slightly disadvantageous; secondly, the three chronic diseases in the regional security situation continue to grow, and the two kinds of security are intertwined. In particular, the intensity of mutual deterrence between India and Pakistan is on the rise, while the content of confrontational game in the strategic interaction within and outside the region tends to increase; in addition, the strategic relations between regional countries and foreign powers have different development and evolution. In particular, the trend of strategic triangulation created by the close relationship between India and India and the decline of Sino-Indian relations are worthy of China's vigilance. In the future, China's South Asia policy needs to respect the reality and should not hold the naive illusion of "China, India and Datong", nor should it hold an offensive realistic position of "joining small and attacking big", but should choose the pragmatic strategic orientation of "combining small, stable and large."
【作者单位】：云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心;
【分类号】：D835

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