霸权制衡性联盟:理论逻辑、现实缺失与建立条件

发布时间：2018-04-25 17:44

本文选题：联盟动机理论 + 国家利益　；参考：《世界经济与政治论坛》2017年05期

【摘要】：根据联盟动机理论的逻辑,国际社会应该而且必须联合预防霸权出现或制衡已经形成的霸权。现实中的美国霸权虽然受到部分国家的制衡,但大多属于被动的反应式制衡且制衡程度不足,没有形成霸权制衡性联盟。霸权制衡性联盟缺失成为学术界需要认真思考的理论问题。换个角度来看,对霸权制衡性联盟缺失的研究,也是对建立霸权制衡性联盟所需条件的研究,这方面的必要条件主要涉及需求、意愿、能力和共同基础四个方面。第一,要不要制衡霸权国,从根本上说取决于国家利益,但国家利益的具体指向并非一成不变,各国的国家利益不可能完全一致,此外还要考虑霸权正当性程度以及威胁/收益程度的界限。第二,想不想制衡霸权国,关键看潜在制衡国对制衡行为的"成本-收益"权衡。第三,能不能制衡霸权国,受到许多因素的影响,但潜在制衡国的认知和决策能力非常重要。第四,建立霸权制衡性联盟需要找到潜在制衡国之间的共同基础,这应着眼于它们的制衡需求、意愿和能力。
[Abstract]:According to the logic of alliance motivation theory, the international community should and must jointly prevent the emergence of hegemony or check and balance the established hegemony. Although American hegemony is counterbalanced by some countries, it belongs to passive reactive checks and balances, and the degree of checks and balances is insufficient, so there is no hegemonic counterbalancing alliance. The lack of hegemonic balance alliance has become a theoretical problem that needs to be seriously considered in academic circles. In other words, the research on the lack of hegemonic counterbalancing alliance is also the study of the necessary conditions for the establishment of hegemonic counterbalancing alliance. The necessary conditions in this respect mainly involve four aspects: demand, will, ability and common foundation. First, whether or not to check and balance hegemonic powers is fundamentally dependent on national interests. However, the specific direction of national interests is not inflexible, and the national interests of all countries cannot be completely identical. In addition, we should consider the legitimacy of hegemony and the threshold of threat / profit. Second, the key to counterbalance hegemonic power is the balance between cost and benefit of the potential counterbalance. Thirdly, whether the hegemonic power can be balanced or not is influenced by many factors, but the cognitive and decision-making ability of the potential counterbalance country is very important. Fourth, the establishment of hegemonic checks and balances needs to find common ground among potential checks and balances, which should focus on their checks and balances needs, willingness and capabilities.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院;山东大学政治学与公共管理学院;中共山东省委党校;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“美国‘亚太再平衡’战略对中国地缘政治的影响及其应对研究”(16BGJ038)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D815

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