联盟的转型—在权力与信任之间

发布时间：2018-04-25 23:03

本文选题：联盟转型 + 结构性权力　；参考：《吉林大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：冷战结束后,为维护其世界霸主地位,美国极力推动其在世界各地的联盟进行调整与转型。北约转型、美国亚太联盟调整、志愿者联盟不断兴起是当前世界联盟大转型的典型代表。由于这些联盟的调整、变革与转型,对国际形势以及国际体系均产生了深远的影响,因此很有必要加强对联盟转型的研究。联盟转型实际上是联盟中结构性权力与联盟信任变化、互动的产物。通过联盟转型,联盟实现了利益的再协调、功能的再设置、关系的再调整,战略的再协商等等。在安全威胁缓解、安全领域扩大的情况下,传统的单一军事联盟的局限性不断凸显,向多样化、综合性的战略性联盟转型是大势所趋。不过目前学界关于联盟转型的理论研究并不多见,相关研究大多从国际战略、国际环境变化入手,无法提供足够的理论解释力。既有的联盟转型研究大多聚焦于北约,样本的单一性不可避免地会造成理论有失偏颇。学界对北约转型主要从制度、安全与认同三种视角进行分析,但这对于美国亚太双边不对称联盟并不完全适用。本文拟就“结构性权力——联盟信任”互动视角来探讨联盟转型,不仅把握了影响联盟关系的核心结构,也注意到了联盟内在的动态进程。通过“结构——进程”的整体分析框架设计分析联盟转型是本文的创新之处。结构性权力主要由安全结构、政治结构、经济结构与文化结构组成,其中每个结构内部都有三到四个指标参数。结构性权力是影响联盟困境的主导因素,由此结构性权力也将影响联盟信任关系。对联盟信任可以区分为不信任、工具性信任与情绪性信任三种。联盟信任与结构性权力之间的关系并不相一致,随着联盟关系的持续,两者之间的冲突会越来越多。从结构性权力与联盟信任的互动视角来分析联盟转型主要考虑这两个软硬因素的乘积效应。结构性权力通过复杂性、不确定性、预期—控制、责任性主客体角色对联盟信任产生影响。结构性权力的集聚与离散、极化与均化以及影响权重的变化,加之联盟的不信任、工具性信任、情绪性信任的变化,联盟关系可能出现松散、弱化或巩固与强化。美韩联盟是验证联盟转型理论的重要案例。目前,美韩联盟正处于转型之中,其发展趋势如何将深刻影响到朝鲜半岛乃至东北亚国际局势。美韩联盟历经50多年变迁,可以划分为形成期(20世纪50年代——60年代中期)、松散期(20世纪60年代末期——70年代末期)、强化期(20世纪80年代——90年代初)与转型期(20世纪90年初——至今)四个阶段。在美韩联盟的不同阶段,结构性权力的各部分会发生变化,其总体趋势是:安全结构始终是影响美韩联盟关系的主导因素但作用不断弱化;政治结构中介作用不断增强;经济结构的不断强化并对联盟的影响不断加大;文化结构的潜在作用不断显现。与此同时联盟信任也出现了相应的阶段性变化。联盟形成期,美韩双方形成了双向情绪性信任;联盟松散期,双方情绪性信任开始向工具性信任过渡;联盟强化期,情绪性信任开始让位于工具性信任;当前的联盟转型,双向工具性信任已成主流,美韩联盟极有可能落实为战略联盟。在结构性权力与联盟信任的互动影响下,美韩联盟将向综合性、多样化联盟转型。基于“结构性权力——联盟信任”的互动视角,美国的亚太联盟会出现转型,但高强度、高信任度的联盟体系则难以建立。未来的美国亚太联盟之间会呈现出联盟内部互动增多、联盟合作领域扩大、联盟军事指向减弱的趋向,松散的亚太安全伙伴网络有可能形成,但北约版的亚太联盟体系很难建立。在这之中,需要注意经贸因素在美国亚太联盟发展与转型中的重要作用。中国是亚太地区的重要国家,在亚太地区拥有重要的战略利益。美国的亚太联盟转型将对中国和平发展战略产生重要影响,因此需要密切关注美国亚太联盟的调整、变革与转型。加强中国自身实力建设的同时,也需要强化与美国及其亚太盟友的沟通与合作,淡化美国亚太联盟的军事色彩,并积极推动其向地区多边安全机制转变。
[Abstract]:After the end of the cold war, in order to maintain its world hegemony, the United States has made great efforts to promote its adjustment and transformation in all parts of the world. The transformation of NATO, the adjustment of the Asia Pacific Alliance and the rising of the alliance of volunteers are the typical representatives of the great transformation of the world alliance. The system has had a profound impact, so it is necessary to strengthen the study of alliance transformation.
The alliance transformation is actually the product of the structural power and the alliance trust change in the alliance. Through the alliance transformation, the alliance realizes the recoordination of the interests, the rearrangement of the function, the readjustment of the relationship, the re consultation of the strategy and so on. The limitation of the traditional single military alliance is not the limitation of the security threat and the expansion of the security field. However, there are not many theoretical studies on the transformation of alliance in the academic circles, and the related research is mostly from the international strategy and the international environment change, which can not provide enough theoretical explanation. The research of the alliance transformation is mostly focused on NATO and the single character of the sample. It is inevitable that the theory is biased. The transition of NATO is mainly from three perspectives, namely, system, security and identity, but it is not fully applicable to the United States Asia Pacific bilateral asymmetric alliance.
This paper discusses the transformation of alliance in the perspective of "structural power - alliance trust". It not only grasps the core structure that affects the alliance relationship, but also pays attention to the internal dynamic process of the alliance. It is the innovation of this article through the overall analysis framework of "structure process". The main part of this paper is the structural power. It consists of security structure, political structure, economic structure and cultural structure, in which there are three to four parameters in each structure. Structural power is the leading factor affecting the dilemma of the alliance. Thus the structural power will also affect the alliance trust relationship. The trust of the alliance can be divided into the distrust, the instrumental trust and the emotional trust three. The relationship between the alliance trust and the structural power is not consistent. With the continuity of the alliance, there will be more and more conflicts between the two. From the interactive perspective of the structural power and the alliance trust, this paper analyzes the product effect of the two soft and hard factors in the alliance transformation. The structure power is complicated, uncertain, and expected. - control, the role of responsible subject and guest has an impact on alliance trust. The agglomeration and dispersion of structural power, polarization and homogenization, and changes in the influence of weight, as well as the alliance's distrust, instrumental trust, and emotional trust change, the alliance relationship may be loose, weakened or consolidated and strengthened.
The United States and the South Korea alliance is an important case to verify the transition theory of the alliance. At present, the United States and the South Korea alliance is in the transition, how its development trend will profoundly affect the international situation of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. After 50 years of changes, the United States and South Korea can be divided into a period of formation (1950s - mid 60s), the loose period (1960s) The end of the late 70s, the four stages of the strengthening period (1980s - early 90s) and the transition period (early twentieth Century 90). In the different stages of the United States and the South Korea, the various parts of the structural power will change. The overall trend is that the security structure is the leading factor affecting the relationship between the United States and the South and the south, but the effect is weak. The intermediary role of the political structure has been strengthened continuously; the economic structure has been strengthened continuously and the influence of the alliance has been increasing; the potential role of the cultural structure is constantly showing. At the same time, the alliance trust has also appeared in the corresponding stage changes. The alliance formation period has formed a two-way emotional trust between the two sides of the United States and the South and the United States; the alliance is loose and the emotional trust between the two sides. In the alliance strengthening period, the emotional trust begins to lie in the instrumental trust; the current alliance transformation, the two-way instrumental trust has become the mainstream, the United States and the South Korea alliance is likely to be a strategic alliance. Under the interaction of structural power and alliance trust, the United States and the South Korea alliance will transform into a comprehensive and diversified alliance.
Based on the interactive perspective of "structural power - alliance trust", the Asia Pacific Alliance in the United States will be transformed, but the alliance system with high intensity and high trust is difficult to establish. The security partner network is likely to form, but the NATO Asia Pacific Alliance system is difficult to establish. In this, we need to pay attention to the important role of economic and trade factors in the development and transformation of the Asia Pacific Alliance. China is an important country in the Asia Pacific region and has important strategic benefits in the Asia Pacific region. The transition of the United States Asia Pacific Alliance will bring peace to China. The development strategy has an important impact. Therefore, we need to pay close attention to the adjustment, change and transformation of the Asia Pacific Alliance. While strengthening China's own strength construction, it also needs to strengthen communication and cooperation with the United States and its Asia Pacific allies, desalination of the military color of the American Asia Pacific Alliance and actively promote its transition to regional multilateral security mechanisms.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815

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