中国外交风险预警模型的建构

发布时间：2018-04-26 03:06

本文选题：外交风险 + 早期预警　；参考：《国际展望》2017年03期

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,全球政治的复杂变化使覆盖范围正快速拓展的中国外交面临的各类风险大大增加。如何预防各类外交风险,避免其上升为外交危机是目前中国外交面临的严峻挑战之一。在可供选择的各类应对措施中,建立健全外交风险的早期预警与早期响应机制相对更为有效,也更为经济。国际上已有大量可借鉴的早期预警与早期响应模型的建构实践,但中国外交风险预警模型的建构还应充分虑及自身的两个特殊性:一方面,中国一贯坚持不干涉他国内政原则,因此外交风险预警模型不能简单效仿国际做法,仅聚焦对象国内部稳定;另一方面,中国是一个崛起中的大国,中国外交面临的风险往往具有体系性特征,可能产生国际溢出效应。因此,中国外交风险预警模型应至少包含三个要素,即对象国稳定、双边关系稳定及第三方溢出效应等。这一模型能更加客观地观测中国外交所面临的国别、跨国及体系性风险,进而有利于提供更为准确和全面的早期响应策略。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, the complex changes in global politics have greatly increased the risks to China's diplomacy, which is expanding rapidly. How to prevent all kinds of diplomatic risks and avoid its rise into a diplomatic crisis is one of the severe challenges facing China's diplomacy. Among the various countermeasures available, it is more effective and economical to establish and improve the mechanism of early warning and early response of diplomatic risks. There have been a large number of practices in the construction of early warning and early response models that can be used for reference in the world. However, the construction of China's diplomatic risk warning model should also take into account its own two particularities: on the one hand, China has always adhered to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. Therefore, the early warning model of diplomatic risk cannot simply emulate the international approach and focus only on the internal stability of the target country. On the other hand, China is a rising power, and the risks faced by China's diplomacy are often of a systematic nature. May have an international spillover effect. Therefore, the early warning model of China's diplomatic risk should contain at least three elements, namely, the stability of the target country, the stability of bilateral relations and the third party spillover effect. This model can more objectively observe the national, transnational and systemic risks faced by China's diplomacy, thus providing a more accurate and comprehensive early response strategy.
【作者单位】：上海国际问题研究院;
【基金】：2016年度马克思主义理论研究和建设工程重大项目“党的十八大以来以习近平同志为核心的党中央推进外交理论和实践创新的重大成果研究”(2016MSJ038)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D820

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