威胁均衡理论和印苏和平友好合作条约

发布时间：2018-04-27 05:15

本文选题：威胁均衡理论 + 印度　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：《印苏和平友好条约》于1971年8月9日在第三次印巴战争开始前几个月签署。该条约规定了印度与苏联相互间的战略合作。但是该条约的签署对印度自独立后奉行的不结盟立场有很大的偏离。印度和巴基斯坦于1947年在南亚地区建国。但是,这两个国家长期以来一直属于一个国家。自它们独立以来,印度和巴基斯坦关系一直都不稳定。由于克什米尔问题,第一次印巴战争发生在1947年。尽管联合国确实参与调停,宣布停火,但是没有化解两国的敌意,边界仍时不时发生冲突。战争期间,两国领导层力图改善关系。然而,这些尝试都不是很成功,第二次印巴战争于1965年发生。争端的原因仍是克什米尔。当时,苏联是在塔什干进行的谈判的调解人。但这次和平会议并没有化解敌意,两国关系变得更加糟糕。1969年尼克松任职后,南亚地区的局势发生了变化。他的外交政策目标之一是与中国关系的正常化。尼克松和基辛格希望中国的密切伙伴巴基斯坦,在这一过程中充当中间人。早在20世纪70年代初,美国和中国之间通过巴基斯坦的第一次秘密联系已经开始。该区的另一个大危机发生在1971年,当时巴基斯坦(东部和西部)两地区之间的军事冲突已经开始了。这场冲突导致大量难民流向印度。难民危机给新德里带来经济,社会和安全问题。印度的领导层也意识到只有印度进行干预,冲突和难民危机才能解决。但同时,他们知道这很可能招致美国或中国的外部干涉。在印巴发生战争的情况下,美国或中国支持巴基斯坦从而进行干涉的可能性被印度领导层视为是对其国家利益的威胁。因此,印度急切地想要签订与苏联的《印苏和平友好合作条约》,因为印度的领导层意识到了苏联可以对付中国和美国这一事实。本文的主要研究问题是:为什么在1971年的东巴基斯坦危机期间,印度签署了和平友好合作条约,改变了其外交政策?笔者没有找到一篇根据均衡威胁理论来解释该问题的论文或研究。有许多论文强调了该条约在1971年与巴基斯坦战争期间对印度的重要性。其他论文是对导致1971年南亚地区危机的原因的解读。但是,没有一篇文章关注这个特定的问题。论文中的假设基于印度领导层感知到的美利坚合众国和中华人民共和国在可能爆发的印度和巴基斯坦的战争中通过潜在的(军事或任何其他方式)参战而显现的可能的威胁。这些行动将成为一种支援,使得巴基斯坦实现其在东部的军事目标。很明显,这样看来,印度领导层预料到了对他们国家利益的伤害,意识到在该地区对印度军事目标的直接威胁,要求即时反应。在与苏联签订该条约的情况下,印度能够很容易地约束其他各方(亦即中国和美国)大量部署部队,不允许它们进行可能会展开的目的为削弱印度军事或其他实力的任何军事行动,至少不直接进行。因此,印度在1971年确实签署了与苏联的条约,因为对于中国或美国为支持巴基斯坦而潜在参与印巴战争的威胁的感知。该论文共分为五章,第一章是简介。介绍了自独立以来,印巴关系的短暂历史,简要介绍了1971年孟加拉国解放战争初期该地区的情况。理论方法也在第一章中阐释。威胁均衡理论首次由斯蒂芬·沃尔特(stephenm.walt)在题为“联盟形成与世界权力平衡”(1985)的文章中首次提出,后来在他的书“联盟起源”(1987年)中有所阐述。威胁均衡理论解释了国家间联盟。根据这个理论,国家结成联盟共同应对威胁,而不是单靠个别国家的力量。按照沃尔特的说法,威胁均衡理论即是当威胁不平衡时(即当一个国家或联盟似乎特别危险时),各国将形成联盟或增加其内部实力,以减少其脆弱性。第二章力图描述印巴关系的历史,并进一步阐述两国之间敌对的原因。本章的主要目的之一是展现自1947年独立以来印巴关系的发展。这将有助于了解哪些因素影响了双边关系的动态,并导致他们在1971年发生冲突。第三章主要侧重于冲突中的主要参与者之间的双边关系,并提出影响该地区在该时期形成的联盟制度的一系列原因。它描述了1971年冲突的主要参与者之间的关系的性质,展现了其发展,提出了影响国家加入某个联盟的情势,并解释了为什么某个联盟有效或无效。第四章解释导致孟加拉国解放战争的原因。本章包含本文的重点,笔者解释了使得印度签署“1971年条约”的原因。它还将阐述“威胁均衡理论”与使印度在1971年和苏联签署“印苏和平友好合作条约”的原因之间的关系。孟加拉解放战争爆发后,上达百万的从巴基斯坦东部到印度的难民给印度带来了经济,社会和安全问题,英迪拉甘地意识到,只有印度对战争进行干预才能阻止危机,使所有难民返回巴基斯坦。同时,甘地意识到印度对孟加拉解放战争的干预可能会招致美国和中国因支持巴基斯坦而参战的威胁。这将可能导致印度战败。因此,印度必须寻找一个可以消除他方外部参战威胁的盟友。那时,只有苏联,对来自美国和中国参与可能的印度-巴基斯坦冲突的威胁的认知迫使印度在1971年签署了与苏联的和平友好合作条约。最后,第五章得出结论,印度由于南亚地区不断发酵的情势(巴基斯坦东部的战争,难民危机和潜在的外部力量参战的威胁)与苏联签订了条约。该行为主要的原因是美国和中国为支持巴基斯坦而参与印巴战争的威胁。
[Abstract]:The Treaty of peace and friendship between the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union was signed a few months before the third India Pakistan war in August 9, 1971. The treaty stipulates the strategic cooperation between India and the Soviet Union. But the signing of the treaty has greatly deviated from the non aligned position that India has pursued since its independence. India and Pakistan were founded in 1947 in South Asia. The two countries have long been a country. Since their independence, relations between India and Pakistan have been unstable. The first India Pakistan war took place in 1947 because of the Kashmir issue. Although the United Nations did participate in the mediation and declared a ceasefire, it did not dissolve the hostility between the two countries, and the border continued to conflict. During the struggle, the leaders of the two countries tried to improve their relations. However, these attempts were not very successful. The second India Pakistan war took place in 1965. The cause of the dispute was Kashmir. The Soviet Union was the mediator of the negotiations in Tashkent. But the peace conference did not resolve the hostility, and the relationship between the two countries became worse in.1969 Nick. After the tenure, the situation in the South Asian region has changed. One of his foreign policy objectives is the normalization of relations with China. Nixon and Kissinger want China's close partner Pakistan to act as a middleman in this process. Early in the early 1970s, the first secret connection between the United States and China was through Pakistan. Another major crisis in the area began in 1971, when the military conflict between the two regions of Pakistan (Eastern and Western) had begun. The conflict led to a large number of refugees flowing into India. The refugee crisis brought economic, social and security problems to New Delhi. The leadership of India also realized that only India was intervening. And the refugee crisis can be solved. But at the same time, they know it is likely to lead to the external interference of the United States or China. In the case of the war in India, the possibility of us or China's support for Pakistan to intervene is regarded as a threat to its national interests by the India leadership. Therefore, India is eager to sign with the Soviet Union. The India leadership was aware of the fact that the Soviet Union could deal with China and the United States. The main question was why, during the 1971 crisis in East Pakistan, India signed a treaty of peace and friendship and changed its foreign policy, and the author did not find one according to the balance. There are many papers that emphasize the importance of the treaty to India during the 1971 war with Pakistan. Other papers are an interpretation of the causes of the 1971 crisis in South Asia. However, no article is concerned with this particular problem. The hypothesis in this paper is based on the leadership of India. Perceived possible threats to United States of America and People's Republic of China in the potential war of India and Pakistan through potential (military or any other) participation in the war. These actions will be a support to enable Pakistan to achieve its military goals in the East. It is clear that India is in this way. The leadership has foreseen the harm to their national interests, and is aware of the immediate threat to India's military targets in the region, and requires immediate response. In the case of the treaty with the Soviet Union, India can easily restrain a large number of forces from other parties (that is, China and the United States), and do not allow them to carry out their possible purposes. Any military action to weaken the military or other strength of India, at least not directly. Therefore, India did sign the treaty with the Soviet Union in 1971, because of the perception of China or the United States to support the threat of the India Pakistan war in support of Pakistan. The paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is a brief introduction. The brief history of the relationship between India and Pakistan briefly introduces the situation in the early 1971 of the war of liberation in Bangladesh. The theory method is also explained in the first chapter. The theory of threat equilibrium was first proposed by Stephen Walter (stephenm.walt) in the article entitled "alliance formation and world power balance" (1985) for the first time, and later in his book. The origin of the Alliance (1987) is explained. The theory of threat equilibrium explains the alliance between states. According to this theory, the State conforms to a threat rather than a single country. According to Walter, the threat to equilibrium theory is when a threat is imbalanced (that is, when a country or alliance seems particularly dangerous), Countries will form alliances or increase their internal strength to reduce their vulnerability. The second chapter tries to describe the history of India and Pakistan and further expounds the causes of hostility between the two countries. One of the main purposes of this chapter is to show the development of India Pakistan Relations since independence in 1947. This will help to understand which factors affect the movement of bilateral relations. The third chapter mainly focuses on the bilateral relations between the main participants in the conflict and puts forward a series of reasons for the alliance system that affects the region during the period. It describes the nature of the relationship between the main participants in the 1971 conflict, shows its development, and puts forward the influence of the state. The fourth chapter explains the cause of the war of liberation in Bangladesh. This chapter contains the focus of this article. The author explains why India signed the "1971 treaty". It will also explain the "threat balance theory" and the signing of India in 1971 and the Soviet Union. After the outbreak of the Bangladesh liberation war, millions of refugees from Eastern Pakistan to India brought India economic, social and security issues. Indira Gandhi realized that only India's intervention in the war could prevent the crisis and all the refugees returned to baghi. At the same time, Gandhi realized that India's intervention in the war of liberation in Bangladesh could lead to a threat to the war between the United States and China in support of Pakistan. This would lead to a defeat in India. Therefore, India must find an ally that can eliminate the threat of the other's external participation. The recognition of the threat of the India Pakistan conflict forced India to sign the Treaty of peace and friendly cooperation with the Soviet Union in 1971. Finally, the fifth chapter concluded that India signed a treaty with the Soviet Union because of the continuous fermenting situation in South Asia (the eastern Pakistan war, the refugee crisis and the threat of potential external forces participating in the war). The main reason is that the United States and China are involved in the threat of India Pakistan war in support of Pakistan.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D835.1;D835.3

【相似文献】