哥本哈根国际气候谈判的博弈树相关均衡分析

发布时间：2018-04-27 06:36

本文选题：国际气候谈判 + 序贯决策博弈　；参考：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年07期

【摘要】：哥本哈根议程凸显出发展中国家与发达国家在国际气候谈判的博弈冲突性.借鉴Forgo的博弈树相关均衡概念,发展中国家和发达国家作为国际气候谈判主体,划分京都议定书时期,哥本哈根协议时期和未来长久时期,建立了哥本哈根国际气候谈判的序贯决策博弈模型.根据2007年IPCC第一工作组《第四次评估报告》的研究结论,建立CO_2浓度与全球气温的线性回归模型和ARMA(4,2)预测模型,得出长期目标下各种减排路径的CO_2浓度贡献值.结合谈判设定各国温室气体减排率,计算各减排路径的全球气温变化,运用线性规划GHGAME求解博弈树相关均衡结果.研究表明,根据前一时期减排进展采取相机调整的国际气候谈判方案,减排效果要好于谈判初期采取一揽子解决的方案;发达国家是否率先切实履行减排承诺,对全球气候变化控制效果至关重要.
[Abstract]:The Copenhagen agenda highlights the conflict between developing and developed countries in international climate negotiations. Drawing lessons from Forgo's concept of game tree related equilibrium, developing and developed countries, as the main body of international climate negotiations, divide the period of Kyoto Protocol, the period of Copenhagen Agreement and the long term period in the future. The sequential decision-making game model of international climate negotiations in Copenhagen is established. According to the conclusion of the fourth Assessment report of the first working Group of IPCC in 2007, a linear regression model of CO_2 concentration and global temperature and a prediction model of ARMA-4O _ 2) were established, and the contribution of CO_2 concentration to various emission reduction paths in the long term was obtained. The greenhouse gas emission reduction rate of each country is set in combination with the negotiation, the global temperature change of each emission reduction path is calculated, and the game tree correlation equilibrium result is solved by linear programming GHGAME. The study shows that the results of the international climate negotiations, which have been adjusted by camera according to the progress of emission reduction in the previous period, are better than those adopted in the early stages of the negotiations, and whether developed countries have taken the lead in fulfilling their emission reduction commitments. It is critical to the effectiveness of global climate change control.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71171035,71271045,71201019) 2012辽宁省高等学校优秀人才支持计划(LJQ2012099)
【分类号】：D815;X2

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