对外战略转换中统帅与官僚群体间的复杂博弈

发布时间：2018-04-30 01:10

本文选题：传统中国 + 对外战略　；参考：《当代亚太》2017年01期

【摘要】：在对外战略转换过程中,存在着游离于决策制度和程序之外的复杂的权势博弈,博弈的一方是在制度设计中被赋予特殊地位的政治统帅,另一方则是以理性决策为基础的专业官僚队伍。决定双方在博弈中胜出的关键,是政治统帅的个性特点和官僚群体的权势集合。在统帅个性不变的情况下,官僚群体的集合权势越大,在政策博弈中胜出的概率越高,最后的政策也就越倾向于官僚群体的立场。而在官僚群体权势不变的情况下,统帅个性越强,在坚持个人偏好方面就越固执,其在政策博弈中胜出的几率就越高,最后决策也就越倾向于统帅的个人偏好。对比公元前166年和公元前133年汉廷两次对匈奴战略决策过程中统帅与官僚群体之间的博弈细节,可以较好地印证上述理论。而在相同的政治制度背景中,统帅与官僚群体之间博弈的四种类型呈现的结果并不完全相异。加入时间的维度,双方博弈的最终结果符合统帅个人偏好的几率远较其他几种结果更高。如果不深入分析决策细节,观察者会很容易把决策结果看成是统帅个人的专断独裁甚至是随心妄为。这种发现对于我们观察传统中国和理解当下中国对外战略转换不无裨益。
[Abstract]:In the process of foreign strategic transformation, there is a complicated power game outside the decision-making system and procedure. The party in the game is the political commander who is given a special position in the system design. The other is a professional bureaucracy based on rational decision-making. The key to win the game is the personality of the political commander and the power set of the bureaucratic group. Under the condition that the commander's personality is constant, the greater the collective power of the bureaucratic group, the higher the probability of winning in the policy game, and the more inclined the final policy is to the position of the bureaucratic group. Under the condition of the same power of bureaucratic group, the stronger the personality of the commander is, the more stubborn he is in insisting on his personal preference, and the higher the probability of winning in the policy game is, the more inclined he is to the personal preference of the commander in the final decision. Comparing the game details between the commander and the bureaucratic group in the strategic decision-making process of the Huns in 166BC and 133BC, the above theory can be well confirmed. In the same political system background, the results of the four types of game between commander and bureaucratic group are not completely different. In the dimension of time, the probability that the final result of game accords with the personal preference of commander is much higher than that of other results. Without a thorough analysis of the details of the decision, it is easy for observers to see the outcome as an arbitrary, dictatorial or even arbitrary decision by the commander-in-chief. This kind of discovery is helpful for us to observe traditional China and understand the transformation of China's foreign strategy.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学国际关系学院;
【基金】：“中国人民大学2016年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划”成果
【分类号】：D820

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