美印核合作与朝核问题前景

发布时间：2018-05-01 20:25

本文选题：美印核合作 + 朝鲜核问题　；参考：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：2006年美印核协议不仅削弱了国际社会的核不扩散机制，而且破坏了核不扩散政策的一贯性。美国推行与印度开展核合作的政策，其目的在于通过印度牵制中国，进而继续维持其世界霸主地位。美国的上述举动不仅广受责难，而且对解决伊朗及朝鲜核问题产生了很大的消极影响。美国对印度的核容忍政策使朝鲜找到借口持续研发核武器，可以说这一负面事件使得朝鲜相信，只要他们坚持不放弃核武器的研发，就能够作为核武器拥有国获得认可。今天，美国不可能像认可印度一样认可朝鲜拥有核武器，因为印度和朝鲜在国际社会中地位不同，战略价值也相应存在差异。不过在朝鲜核危机日趋严重后，从美国的态度及美国政府人员提及朝鲜拥有核武器时的相关言论看来，美国有可能出于本国战略利益关系，改变其对朝鲜的核政策。如果美国对朝鲜的核政策发生变化，那么很可能是像对印度一样对其采取容忍的态度，或把朝鲜由无核化国家转变为不扩散核武器国家。预计日后美国的对朝鲜核政策将在美中关系及美朝关系发展变化的影响下，呈现出不同的局面。如果美国像对印度一样认可或默认朝鲜拥有核武器，人们就会因此担忧全球范围核扩散加速，并在东亚引起相应的核多米诺反应。在此期间，朝鲜通过从废燃料棒中提取钚、浓缩铀、以及三次核试验持续加强本国的核能力，特别是朝鲜的第三次核试验更使朝鲜核问题进入了新局面。今天朝鲜炫耀核能力时，不再像过去只将其作为与美国谈判的筹码，而是把加强本国的核能力看作确保其体制稳定的最佳手段，2012年4月朝鲜把“拥有核武器”写入修订后的宪法之中。今天，朝鲜已声称其不再是刚刚跨过核门槛的国家，而是拥有足够实力、名副其实的核武器拥有国。朝鲜核问题不仅是美朝两国之间的问题，它也可能导致包括朝鲜半岛在内的东北亚地区局势不稳定，并可能动摇NPT体制根本。今天，不论国际社会是否认可朝鲜拥有核武器，都必须针对拥有核武器的朝鲜树立新的无核化战略。在过去朝鲜核问题日趋严重的20余年期间，以联合国为首的国际社会针对朝鲜采取了各种制裁措施，但这些制裁措施未能成功阻止朝鲜拥有核武器，这可能主要是因为相关国家对朝鲜核问题的目标及利害关系存在差异，特别是美国奥巴马政府推行的“战略性忍耐”政策反而可能为朝鲜提供了增强本国核能力的时间和机会。今天，相关国家应针对朝鲜问题制定“朝鲜无核化”目标，并坚决不能在与此目标相关的方面进行任何妥协。如果施加压力及实施制裁不能阻止朝鲜的核威胁，反而加强了朝鲜的核能力与导弹能力，那么现在就到了需要采用“通过对话解决问题”原则的时代。如果要更换过去以制裁与压迫为主的政策，使朝鲜参与对话，，就需要韩国发挥积极主动的作用。另外，韩国也应该积极考虑同时推进解决朝鲜核问题及促进南北关系改善的相应战略。在朝鲜技术上已成为核武器拥有国的现实情况下，有必要通过成立以韩美中为中心的“国际协商组织”，制定解决朝鲜核问题的整体计划。国际社会应该改变过去通过美朝秘密接触推进6方会谈的老办法，通过国际协商组织提出统一的对朝鲜问题的看法，并加强各国在制定朝鲜政策方面的合作。在朝鲜为确保本国体制生存而执着于核武器的情况下，目前一味等待的战略无法从根本上解决朝鲜核问题。为使朝鲜再次参与对话，韩国、美国和中国必须尽早树立创新、综合的对朝鲜战略。
[Abstract]:In 2006, the United States and India nuclear agreement not only weakened the nuclear non-proliferation mechanism of the international community, but also undermined the consistency of the nuclear non-proliferation policy. The United States carried out a policy of carrying out nuclear cooperation with India, with the aim of holding China through India and continuing to maintain its hegemony in the world.
The actions of the United States are not only reproach, but also have a great negative impact on the resolution of the nuclear issue of Iran and North Korea. The United States' nuclear tolerance policy on India has made the DPRK find an excuse to continue to develop nuclear weapons, which can be said to have led North Korea to believe that as long as they do not give up the R & D of nuclear weapons, it can be used as a nuclear weapon. Today, it is impossible for the United States to recognize North Korea's nuclear weapons like India, because India and DPRK have different positions in the international community and the corresponding differences in strategic values. It seems that the United States may change its nuclear policy toward North Korea in the light of its strategic interests.
If the United States changes its nuclear policy to North Korea, it is likely to take a tolerant attitude to India, or change North Korea from the denuclearization to the non proliferation nuclear weapon states. As the United States, like India, recognised or defaulted on North Korea's nuclear weapons, people would be worried about the acceleration of global nuclear proliferation and the corresponding nuclear Domino reaction in East Asia.
In the meantime, North Korea has continued to strengthen its nuclear capabilities by extracting plutonium from waste fuel rods, enriching uranium, and three nuclear tests, especially the third nuclear tests in North Korea that have made the North Korean nuclear issue a new situation. Today, North Korea is no longer just a bargaining chip with the United States as it used to be a bargaining chip with the United States, but to strengthen its own country. As the best means to ensure the stability of its system, North Korea wrote the "nuclear weapons" into the revised constitution in April 2012. Today, North Korea has claimed that it is no longer a country that has just crossed the nuclear threshold, but has enough strength to have a real nuclear weapon state.
North Korea's nuclear issue is not only a problem between the United States and the DPRK, it may also lead to instability in the Northeast Asia, including the Korean Peninsula, and may shake the NPT system fundamentally. Today, no matter whether the international community recognise North Korea's nuclear weapons, it must set a new denuclearization strategy for North Korea with nuclear weapons. The international community, headed by the United Nations, has taken various sanctions against the DPRK over the past 20 years, but the sanctions have failed to prevent the DPRK from having nuclear weapons. This may be mainly due to the differences in the targets and interests of the relevant countries on the Korean nuclear issue, especially the Obama administration of the United States. The strategy of "strategic patience" may provide North Korea with time and opportunities to enhance its nuclear capability.
Today, the relevant countries should set the "Korean denuclearization" target on the Korean issue and do not make any compromise on the related aspects. If pressure and sanctions do not prevent North Korea's nuclear threat, it will strengthen the nuclear and missile power of the DPRK, and now it is necessary to use "through dialogue". It is necessary for Korea to play a positive and active role in the dialogue, and South Korea should also actively consider the corresponding strategy to solve the North Korean nuclear problem and promote the improvement of North and South relations if the policy of replacing the past with the policy of sanctions and oppression is to be replaced.
With the fact that North Korea has become a nuclear weapon state in technology, it is necessary to set up an overall plan to solve the North Korean nuclear issue through the establishment of the "International Consultative Organization" as the center of the United States and the United States. The international community should change the old ways of advancing the 6 party talks through the secret contact between the United States and the DPRK, and put forward a unified international consultation organization. In order to take part in the dialogue, Korea, the United States and China must set up innovation as soon as possible. In order to make the DPRK participate in the dialogue again, the Korean, the United States and China must set up an innovation as soon as possible. The North Korea strategy.

【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：D815.2

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