中东能源因素对大国能源战略的影响

发布时间：2018-05-02 03:12

本文选题：中东能源 + 大国　；参考：《上海外国语大学》2011年博士论文

【摘要】：自从1993年中国成为石油净进口国以来,人们开始越来越多的关注石油安全问题,同时也开始关注“中东”这个似乎曾经离中国很遥远的地区。提起中东能源,人们首先会想起的就是石油。这是因为,在中东地区,几乎没有不与石油相联系的问题,不是起源于石油,就是归结于石油。在半个多世纪的时间里,中东石油以其巨大的储产量对世界经济政治和国际关系产生过巨大而深远的影响,不少西方发达国家以及发展中国家都高度依赖中东石油的供应。 “9·11”事件以后,随着世界经济的发展,国际能源的供应也出现多元化趋势,中东地区不再像原来那样一家独大,非洲、中亚里海地区、俄罗斯均在国际能源格局中占领新的高地。但是中东仍在世界能源格局中占据重要地位,因此,中东的能源因素仍是影响各大国能源战略调整的重要变量,也必将对国际关系产生影响。本文除导论和结论部分外,共分为六章,分析结构及其框架安排如下: 导论部分主要是对论文的研究背景、相关概念界定、国内外相关研究情况、理论基础和文章的写作思路进行简单的介绍。第一章主要是介绍中东在国际能源格局中不变的重要地位,主要是因为中东的地缘政治重心地位没有改变,中东油气的储产比远高于其他地区和国家,而且长期以来,中东一直主宰着全球石油生产和出口贸易,这一传统将长期保持下去,最重要的是中东地区石油不仅储量丰富,且开发条件优越。就本文选取的分析目标国(地区)来看,各国(地区)都对各自的能源战略进行了调整,且目标各不相同: 第二章的内容是分析基于中东能源因素的影响,美国的能源战略的调整及其目标——通过牢牢控制中东的石油,为其建立全球霸权奠定基础。本章通过四个小节来梳理美国政府能源战略调整演变过程,可以看到:1973年以前的美国政府,其石油政策主要在于控制进口;而从尼克松到克林顿政府的30多年里,美国的能源战略一直是以保证中东石油稳定供应为目标;到了小布什政府时期,由于国际能源形势发生了变化,其能源战略也调整为增加储备,开拓新资源;奥巴马上台以后,首要任务就是在中东地区修复美国形象、确保美国石油供给,同时推行“新能源计划”。第三章分析欧盟。欧盟的中东能源战略的目标也很明确,就是为了保证其成员国能源的供应,在此基础上,能够保持其在国际事务中的独立性。目前由27国组成的欧盟是世界上最大的能源消费体和第二大能源进口方,是世界上最大的单一能源市场。中东石油价格波动对欧盟经济形成很大的冲击,同时,其他大国对中东能源的依赖也对欧盟能源需求形成威胁。基于此,欧盟《能源宪章条约》于1998年4月16日开始生效。《能源宪章条约》被设计为欧盟对外能源战略和政策的基础,主要内容包括保护和推动能源投资、能源自由贸易、提倡能源运输的管道和网点的自由化、降低能源使用对环境造成的负面影响,提高能源利用效率、设立争端解决机制。欧盟所采取的具体措施有:第一,建立中东地区“能源政策新秩序”,稳定中东石油供应;第二,保障来自俄罗斯的能源输入,与俄罗斯签署长期条约和合同,包括能源基础设施建设,给俄罗斯以长期稳定的投资保障,帮助俄罗斯实行内部能源市场调整和节能计划,并为此提供投资;第三,开拓中亚等新来源,将里海、中亚和非洲的能源作为欧洲能源的储备。第四章通过三个小节的内容来分析俄罗斯的能源战略的目标——复兴大国地位。在本文讨论的几个“大国”中,俄罗斯的油气资源状况是最为独特的。其他大国均为石油进口大国,对中东石油资源有着高度的依赖性,而俄罗斯本身即为能源大国。因此,中东的石油对俄罗斯有着特殊意义,俄罗斯的能源战略调整也有着与其他大国格外不同的目标定位。俄罗斯将能源产业视为刺激经济复兴的重要推动力,认为制定长期的能源发展战略和安全战略的意义不仅在于推动国内经济的发展,更重要的是,对俄罗斯恢复大国地位有着决定性的意义。俄罗斯的中东政策也经历了三个阶段,分别是俄罗斯“一边倒”时期的中东政策、20世纪90年代下半期对中东政策和普京时期对中东政策。同西方尤其是美国对中东政策的意图相比较,俄罗斯对中东政策经济色彩利益明显大于政治意图,俄罗斯考虑更多的是在中东的经济利益,其根本点在于利用自身的能源优势,逐渐恢复在中东地区的影响力,进而复兴自己的大国地位。众所周知,日本是世界第二大经济大国,同时也是一个能源消费大国和资源极度贫乏的国家。对于日本来说,能源安全问题不仅关系到其整个国家经济发展,甚至关系到其国家的生死存亡。第五章的内容是分析日本的能源战略目标——谋求国家生存,在此基础上谋求大国地位。相比较其他国家而言,日本更加倚重中东的能源进口,也相应的制定了更加完善的对内对外能源战略:一、谋求能源结构多样化,开发新能源,提高能源使用效率;二、分散石油进口来源,谋求能源进口多元化;三、重建与中东石油出口国的合作伙伴关系。同时,日本也注重发挥海上优势,确保能源运输安全。第六章分析中国的能源战略。中国的能源战略的目标也很明确,就是保护改革开放的经济成果,保证中国经济的可持续发展。但是,中国石油供应状况非常严峻,石油安全不容乐观,主要是面临三大挑战:第一、中国石油对外依存度过大;第二、中国石油进口空间紧缩;第三、石油运输的脆弱性明显,“马六甲困局”难以破解。在这样的能源基础上,中国把能源战略的重点放在了中东石油外交上,与沙特、伊朗、伊拉克还有海湾合作组织积极展开合作,确保中国在中东的能源利益。在这样的情况下,“中国石油威胁论”有所抬头,中国公平合理参与全球油气资源的竞争受到少数大国的误解。在中东地区,中国与各大国之间的关系也比较微妙,中美之间是竞争与合作的关系;中日之间理性交往,谋求互利共赢;中俄关系是合作大于竞争;中欧则是利益共同体。最后,对于中国能源安全战略有以下几点思考与建议:第一,要学会国际能源竞争的游戏规则,做到有的放矢;第二、要建立国家层面的统一的能源管理机构,加强能源立法并依法管理;第三、健全能源发展战略,使其长期化、全面化、指标化;第四、确定海外能源开发的战略重点;第五,通过加强国防建设,尤其是海军力量的建设,加强与韩国、日本的合作,并通过对新加坡、马来西亚和印度尼西亚的外交努力,来破解我国石油运输安全的“马六甲困局”,保卫我国的海外能源利益。
[Abstract]:Since China became a net oil importer in 1993, people began to pay more and more attention to oil safety issues, and began to focus on the "Middle East", a region that seemed very far away from China. In more than half a century, Middle East oil has a huge and far-reaching impact on world economic and political and international relations, and many western developed countries and developing countries are highly dependent on the supply of oil in the Middle East.
After the "9 / 11" incident, with the development of the world economy, the supply of international energy also has a trend of diversification. The Middle East is no longer like the original one, Africa, the Caspian region, Russia all occupy the new highland in the international energy pattern. But the Middle East still occupies an important position in the world energy pattern, so the Middle East is in the Middle East. Energy factor is still an important variable affecting the adjustment of energy strategy of major powers, and will also have an impact on international relations.
In addition to the introduction and conclusion, the paper is divided into six chapters. The analysis structure and its framework are arranged as follows:
The introduction is mainly about the research background of the paper, the definition of related concepts, the related research at home and abroad, the theoretical basis and the writing ideas of the article.
The first chapter mainly introduces the important position of the Middle East in the international energy pattern, mainly because the geopolitical gravity of the Middle East has not changed, the oil and gas production in the Middle East is far higher than that of other regions and countries, and for a long time, the Middle East has dominated global oil production and export trade for a long time. This tradition will be maintained for a long time. Most importantly, oil in the Middle East is not only rich in reserves, but also has superior development conditions.
For the analysis of target countries (regions), countries (regions) have adjusted their respective energy strategies, and their goals are different.
The second chapter is to analyze the impact of the energy factors in the Middle East, the adjustment of the energy strategy in the United States and its goals - by firmly controlling the oil in the Middle East, laying the foundation for its global hegemony.
This chapter combs the evolution process of the US government's energy strategy through four sections. It can be seen that the United States government before 1973, whose oil policy is mainly to control imports, and from Nixon to the Clinton Administration for more than 30 years, the US energy strategy has been aimed at ensuring the stable supply of oil in the Middle East; to the George W. Bush administration. In the period of the government, because of the changes in the international energy situation, its energy strategy was also adjusted to increase reserves and exploit new resources. After Obama came to power, the first task was to repair the image of the United States in the Middle East, to ensure the supply of us oil, and to carry out the "new energy plan".
The third chapter analyzes the EU. The EU's goal of the Middle East energy strategy is also clear, in order to ensure the energy supply of its member countries, and on this basis, to maintain its independence in international affairs. The European Union, which consists of 27 countries, is the world's largest energy consumption body and the second largest energy importer, and is the largest single in the world. At the same time, the Energy Charter Treaty of the EU began to take effect in April 16, 1998. The Energy Charter Treaty was set as the basis for the EU's external energy strategy and policy. The main contents include the protection and promotion of energy investment, the free trade in energy, the liberalization of pipelines and outlets for energy transport, the reduction of the negative impact of energy use on the environment, the improvement of energy efficiency and the establishment of a dispute settlement mechanism. The specific measures adopted by the EU are as follows: first, the establishment of a new energy policy order in the Middle East. To stabilize the supply of oil in the Middle East; second, to safeguard energy input from Russia, to sign long-term treaties and contracts with Russia, including energy infrastructure, to provide long-term and stable investment to Russia, to help Russia implement internal energy market adjustment and energy conservation plans, and to provide investment for this purpose; and third, to exploit new sources such as Central Asia, The Caspian Sea, Central Asia and Africa's energy are used as reserves of European energy.
In the fourth chapter, the target of Russia's energy strategy is analyzed by the content of three sections. In the several "big countries" discussed in this article, Russia's oil and gas resources are the most unique. All the other big countries are oil importers with high dependence on the Middle East oil resources, and Russia itself is The energy industry in the Middle East has a special significance to Russia. Russia's energy strategy adjustment is also particularly different from other powers. Russia regards the energy industry as an important driving force to stimulate the economic revival, and believes that the significance of developing a long-term energy development strategy and security strategy is not only to promote the country's energy development. The development of the internal economy, more importantly, is of decisive significance to Russia's restoration of great power status. Russia's Middle East policy has also experienced three stages, namely, Russia's "one-sided" policy in the Middle East, the Middle East Policy in the second half of 1990s and the Middle East policy of Putin, and the west, especially the United States, to the Middle East. In comparison with the intention of the policy, Russia's policy and economic interest in the Middle East is obviously greater than the political intention. Russia considers more of its economic interests in the Middle East. Its fundamental point is to use its own energy advantages to gradually restore its influence in the Middle East and then rejuvenate its own power.
As we all know, Japan is the second largest economic power in the world, and it is also a country of energy consumption and extremely poor resources. For Japan, the problem of energy security is not only related to the economic development of the whole country, but also to the life or death of its country. The content of the fifth chapter is to analyze the energy strategic target of Japan - In comparison with other countries, Japan is more dependent on energy imports in the Middle East, and has formulated a more perfect strategy for internal and external energy: first, to diversify the energy structure, develop new energy and improve the efficiency of energy use; two, to diversify the source of oil import and to seek energy sources. Diversification; three, rebuilding partnership with Middle East oil exporting countries. At the same time, Japan also pays attention to giving full play to maritime advantages and ensuring energy transport safety.
The sixth chapter analyzes China's energy strategy. The goal of China's energy strategy is also clear, which is to protect the economic results of reform and opening up and ensure the sustainable development of China's economy. However, China's oil supply is very severe and oil security is not optimistic, mainly facing three challenges: first, China's petroleum dependence is too large; Two, China's oil import space is tight; third, the vulnerability of oil transportation is obvious, and the "Malacca dilemma" is difficult to crack. On this basis, China focuses on the energy strategy in the Middle East oil diplomacy, and actively cooperates with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the Gulf Cooperation Organization to ensure China's energy benefits in the Middle East. In this case, the "China oil threat theory" has been raised, and China's fair and rational participation in the competition for global oil and gas resources is misunderstood by a small number of countries. In the Middle East, the relationship between China and the great powers is delicate. China and the United States are the relationship between competition and cooperation; China and Japan are rational exchanges, seeking mutual benefit and win-win results; Russia's cooperation is greater than competition, while China and Europe are interest groups.
Finally, there are several suggestions and suggestions for China's energy security strategy: first, we should learn the rules of the international energy competition and make a definite target. Second, we should establish a unified energy management institution at the national level, strengthen the energy legislation and manage it according to law; third, improve the strategy of energy development, and make it long-term, comprehensive and indefinite. Fourth, to determine the strategic focus of overseas energy development; fifth, through strengthening national defense construction, especially the construction of naval forces, strengthening cooperation with Korea and Japan, and through the diplomatic efforts of Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, to solve the "Malacca dilemma" of China's oil transportation security and protect our country's overseas energy and benefits. Benefit.

【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815.4;F416.2

【参考文献】