小布什政府对台政策研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 16:37

本文选题：小布什政府 + 美国对台政策　；参考：《中共中央党校》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文旨在通过对小布什政府对台政策的回顾和梳理,探求其对台政策的规律和特点,从中总结出些许对我处理中美关系和台湾问题的启示和借鉴意义。本文主要分为四个部分。第一部分简要回顾了小布什政府两届任期对台政策的主要内容。小布什政府第一任期伊始,基于遏制和防范中国的战略考量,其台海政策明显朝偏向台湾一方倾斜,从政治、经济、军事等方面全面提升了美台关系。“9·11”恐怖袭击的发生给中美关系的改善带来了新的契机,小布什政府重新审视并调整了中美关系,由强调中国的威胁转变为强调与中国的合作,其对华对台政策表现出了缓和的姿态。但是,这并没有从根本上改变美国对华战略防范和在台湾问题上的强硬政策,小布什政府的扶台举措仍然不断出台。在第二任期,小布什政府基本延续了其第一任期“9·11”之后的对台政策,继续深化与台湾的实质性关系,对陈水扁当局的“台独”行为进行了必要的阻遏,同时在第二任期后半段随着台湾“大选”的临近,加强了同台湾在野党国民党以及民进党其他领导人的关系,以保持和强化美国对台湾的影响力。第二部分主要阐述了小布什政府对台政策的特点。通过对小布什政府对台政策主要内容的回顾分析总结出了三个主要特点,具体表现为:小布什政府对台政策具有内在矛盾性;对台海事务介入加深,实质上扮演了偏向“台独”势力的“调和人”角色;军事关系优于政治关系发展。这三个特点贯穿小布什政府对台政策的始终,也是其对台政策最本质的体现。第三部分重点分析了影响小布什政府对台政策的主要因素。对台政策作为小布什政府的一项具体对外政策,是一系列因素综合作用的结果。这些因素大致可以分为外部因素和内部因素两类,外部因素主要指国际背景;内部因素包括:保守主义思潮、美国国会以及军工利益集团的压力等。第四部分试图在以上三部分的分析基础上,对美国对台政策走向进行预测并对处理两岸关系提出一些思考。根据历届美国政府和现任小布什政府的一系列对台政策和做法,大致可以预测出一些美国对台政策的走向,包括:美国将继续插手台湾问题;美国对台将继续实行以“维持现状”为目标的两手政策;为了维持台海局势稳定,美国会对两岸关系和平发展予以一定支持。回顾和分析小布什政府的对台政策,对我们处理台湾问题有以下几点启示:一是保持中国大陆的发展是国家统一的坚强保证;二是夯实中美之间的战略利益基础,进一步削弱台湾问题在中美战略关系结构中的地位;三是重视台湾的主动性;四是致力于和平统一,但决不承诺放弃使用武力。
[Abstract]:Through reviewing and combing the Bush administration's policy towards Taiwan, this paper explores the laws and characteristics of its policy towards Taiwan, and sums up some enlightenments and references to China's handling of Sino-US relations and the Taiwan issue. This paper is divided into four parts. The first part briefly reviews the main contents of Bush administration's two-term Taiwan policy. At the beginning of the Bush administration's first term, based on the strategic considerations of containing and guarding against China, its Taiwan Strait policy obviously tilted in favor of the Taiwan side, in terms of politics and economy. Military and other aspects have comprehensively enhanced US-Taiwan relations. The "9 / 11" terrorist attacks have brought new opportunities to the improvement of Sino-US relations. The Bush administration has re-examined and adjusted Sino-US relations. From emphasizing China's threat to emphasizing cooperation with China, China's policy toward Taiwan has taken a conciliatory stance. However, this has not fundamentally changed the United States' strategic defense against China and its tough policy on the Taiwan issue, and the Bush administration's efforts to help Taiwan continue to emerge. In the second term, the Bush administration basically continued its Taiwan policy after its first term of "11 September," continued to deepen its substantive relations with Taiwan, and carried out a necessary deterrent to Chen Shuibian's "Taiwan independence" behavior. At the same time, with Taiwan's "general election" approaching in the second half of its second term, relations with the opposition KMT and other leaders of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have been strengthened in order to maintain and strengthen the US influence on Taiwan. The second part mainly expounds the characteristics of Bush administration's Taiwan policy. Through the review and analysis of the main contents of the Bush administration's Taiwan policy, three main characteristics have been summed up, including: the inherent contradictions in the Bush administration's Taiwan policy; and the deepening involvement in Taiwan affairs. In fact, military relations play the role of mediators in favor of Taiwan independence forces, and military relations are superior to the development of political relations. These three characteristics run through the Bush administration's Taiwan policy all the time, and are also the most essential embodiment of its Taiwan policy. The third part analyzes the main factors that influence the Bush administration's Taiwan policy. As a specific foreign policy of Bush administration, Taiwan policy is the result of a series of factors. These factors can be divided into two categories: external factors and internal factors, which mainly refer to the international background, and internal factors include: conservatism, the pressure of Congress and military interest groups and so on. The fourth part attempts to forecast the trend of American policy toward Taiwan on the basis of the analysis of the above three parts and puts forward some thoughts on how to deal with cross-strait relations. According to a series of policies and practices of the previous US government and the current Bush administration, we can roughly predict the trend of some US policies towards Taiwan, including: the United States will continue to interfere in the Taiwan issue; The United States will continue to implement a two-hand policy aimed at "maintaining the status quo," and in order to maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait, the United States will give certain support to the peaceful development of cross-strait relations. The review and analysis of the Bush administration's policy towards Taiwan has the following implications for our handling of the Taiwan issue: first, maintaining the development of the Chinese mainland is a strong guarantee for national reunification; and second, consolidating the strategic interest basis between China and the United States. It is necessary to further weaken the position of the Taiwan issue in the structure of Sino-US strategic relations; third, to attach importance to Taiwan's initiative; and fourth, to work for peaceful reunification, but will never commit itself to renouncing the use of force.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D871.2;D618

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