韬晦之“鸷”:安倍晋三人格特质与对外政策偏好

发布时间：2018-05-05 20:27

本文选题：安倍晋三 + 人格特质　；参考：《外交评论(外交学院学报)》2017年06期

【摘要】：人是外交的核心,但既往研究往往忽视甚至无视个人的作用。作为日本外交的最高决策者,安倍晋三首相具有鲜明的个性和独特的执政风格。本轮大选后,"安倍一强"格局仍在持续。安倍将沿着既定战略目标,全力落实"安倍路线"。在"摆脱战败"的强烈信念驱动下,安倍人格方面的某些特质,能在一定程度上形塑其对外政策偏好。作为改革型领导人,安倍自比"战斗型政治家",在发挥领导力时积极主动,以目标为指向。安倍权力需求较为旺盛,敢于直面政治挫折并注重方式方法。在核心人际关系层面,安倍政权呈现明显的"小集团"色彩,一度注重任用"侧近"人士。他既重"面子",也要"里子"。当"面子"与"里子"相冲突时,后者优先。影响安倍人格形成的因素,既有其老家"长州藩"的精神滋养,也有"岸DNA"与晋太郎的"遗产",其求学、入职、特别是从政的锤炼也不容忽视。在具有"外溢"效应的国家重大政策问题上,安倍既在战略上固守"内核",又在策略上相对务实。安倍注重推行以"俯瞰地球仪的外交"与"积极和平主义"为代表的战略外交与安全保障,当前重要抓手则是"自由开放的印太战略"。在对美认知及偏好上,他主张亲美,但心存"怨念";对华则主张政经分离,以利益而非友好来建立新型中日关系;对朝施加压力并注重利用朝鲜因素争取国内舆论的支持。总体来看,安倍具有复古的国家观,他身上既有鹰派政治家所特有的对外强硬的一面,又有现实主义者极度务实的一面。安倍的政治宿愿是摆脱"战后体制",为此致力于推动战略与决策机制的"双转型"。他重经济,但更重外交与安全保障,目的是让日本成为一个全面崛起的大国。安倍治下的日本,值得国际社会长期关注、深入研究,保持一定的警惕。
[Abstract]:People are the core of diplomacy, but previous studies have often ignored or ignored the role of individuals. As Japan's top foreign policy maker, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has a distinctive personality and unique governing style. After this round of elections, the "one-strength Abe" pattern continues. Abe will follow the established strategic objectives, fully implement the "Abe line." Driven by a strong belief in getting rid of defeat, some of Abe's personality traits shape his foreign policy preferences to a certain extent. As a reformist leader, Abe is a "combat politician" who is proactive and goal-oriented in his leadership. Abe's demand for power is strong, dare to face political setbacks and focus on ways and means. At the core interpersonal level, Abe's regime has a clear "clique" color, once focused on the appointment of "close" people. He wants both face and lining. When face conflicts with Rizi, the latter takes precedence. The factors influencing the formation of Abe's personality are not only the spiritual nourishment of his hometown Changzhou Fan, but also the "heritage" of "shore DNA" and Jintaro. On the major national policy issues with spillover effect, Abe sticks to the "core" strategically and is relatively pragmatic in strategy. Abe focuses on promoting strategic diplomacy and security guarantees represented by "diplomacy overlooking the globe" and "positive pacifism," while the current important grasp is the "free and open India-Pacific strategy." In terms of cognition and preference for the United States, he advocates pro-America, but has a "grudge" in mind; toward China, he advocates separation of politics and economy, establishing a new type of Sino-Japanese relationship based on interests rather than friendship; exerting pressure on the DPRK and paying attention to the use of the Korean factor to win the support of domestic public opinion. Overall, Abe has a retro view of the state, he has a hawkish politician unique to the external tough side, but also realism extremely pragmatic side. Abe's political ambition is to move away from the post-war system and to promote a dual transformation of strategy and decision-making mechanisms. He put more emphasis on economics, but more on diplomacy and security, to make Japan a full-fledged power. Japan under Abe deserves long-term attention from the international community, in-depth study and vigilance.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院日本研究所;
【分类号】：D831.3

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