双边政治关系与中国对亚欧国家出口贸易增长分析——基于三元边际视角

发布时间：2018-05-11 20:16

本文选题：双边政治关系 + 亚欧国家　；参考：《国际经贸探索》2017年07期

【摘要】：双边政治关系被认为是国家间加强沟通、增进理解互信的重要因素。文章基于1996~2014年中国对亚欧国家出口的HS6分位商品数据分析发现:总体上看,高层互访能积极促进出口数量边际的增长,确实发挥了政治为经济服务的功能,其中元首互访产生的积极效应更加显著;从不同地区和收入水平来看,高层互访对促进出口数量边际增长的作用显著,友好城市关系有助于对欧洲和高收入国家的出口数量和价格边际的增长,却对亚洲和中低收入国家的出口有抑制作用,双边政治冲突成为抑制三元边际的增长的重要因素;同时,"丝路"特征变量和欧洲对高收入国家的促进作用非常显著,"亚欧"合作特征变量对亚洲和中低收入国家影响显著。总之,要积极利用现有合作机制,发挥好双边政治关系对出口贸易的保障作用。
[Abstract]:Bilateral political relations are considered to be an important factor in enhancing communication and mutual understanding between countries. Based on the analysis of the HS6 quantile commodity data of China's exports to Asian and European countries from 1996 to 2014, it is found that, on the whole, the exchange of high-level visits can positively promote the marginal growth of export volume, and indeed play a role in serving the economy by politics. Among them, the positive effects of the exchange of visits by heads of state are even more significant. From the perspective of different regions and income levels, high-level visits play a significant role in promoting the marginal growth of export volume. Friendly city relations contribute to the growth of export volume and price margin to Europe and high-income countries, but to the export of Asian and low- and middle-income countries. Bilateral political conflict becomes an important factor to restrain the growth of ternary marginal. At the same time, the characteristic variables of "Silk Road" and "Europe" play a very important role in promoting high-income countries, and the characteristic variables of "Asia-Europe" cooperation have a significant impact on Asia and low- and middle-income countries. In a word, we should actively utilize the existing cooperation mechanism and give full play to the safeguard role of bilateral political relations in export trade.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：教育部国别和区域研究2016-2017年度指向性课题(17GBQY114) 国家自然科学基金项目(71441039)
【分类号】：D822;F752.62

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