联盟情境下试探型强制外交行为探析

发布时间：2018-05-27 03:00

本文选题：强制外交 + 试探型强制外交　；参考：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：联盟历来是国际政治学研究的核心问题之一,但学术界对于联盟在强制外交中所发挥的作用缺乏足够的重视。在对现有强制外交理论研究进行批判性借鉴的基础上,笔者将联盟政治与强制外交相结合,提出了一种新型强制外交——联盟情境下的试探型强制外交。这种强制外交指的是强制国利用联盟内困境(即联盟成员对于“被抛弃”与“被牵连”的恐惧)而采用武力威胁或使用有限武力的方式,试探对象国与其盟友之间承诺的可信度或范围的外交行为。具体来说,联盟情境下的试探型强制外交行为有三种策略可供选择,它们分别是战争边缘策略、“眼镜蛇”策略和懦夫游戏策略。通过对1905年摩洛哥危机和1938年捷克斯洛伐克危机的考察,笔者分析归纳出了有利于决策者实施和推动强制外交成功的理想因素,并按照因素的可变性特征分为环境性和策略性两类：环境性因素包括双方实力对比情况、直接对象国对于盟友的重要程度、双方对爆发战争的彼此可承受的程度、试探对象是否为非对称性联盟；策略性因素包括选择适当的时机、合法化自身的行为、向对手提供愿意妥协的诱因等。
[Abstract]:Alliance has always been one of the core issues in international political studies, but the academic circles have not paid enough attention to the role of alliance in coercive diplomacy. On the basis of critical reference to the theoretical research of compulsory diplomacy, the author combines alliance politics with coercive diplomacy, and puts forward a new kind of coercive diplomacy, which is a kind of exploratory coercive diplomacy in the context of alliance. This kind of coercive diplomacy refers to the use of the threat of force or the use of limited force by coercive States to take advantage of the difficulties in the Union (that is, the fear of "abandoned" and "implicated" members of the Union). The diplomatic act of testing the credibility or scope of a commitment between the target country and its allies. Specifically, there are three strategies to choose from the exploratory coercive diplomacy in the alliance context, which are the strategy of the edge of war, the strategy of cobra and the strategy of cowardly game. Through the investigation of the Moroccan crisis in 1905 and the Czechoslovakia crisis in 1938, the author has analyzed and concluded the ideal factors conducive to the successful implementation and promotion of coercive diplomacy by decision makers. According to the variability of the factors, they can be divided into two categories: environmental factors include the comparison of strength between the two sides, the importance of the direct target country to the allies, and the degree to which the two sides can bear each other's ability to break out war. The strategic factors include choosing the right time, legalizing one's own behavior and providing the opponent with incentives to compromise.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D871.2

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